CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
The Nordic central banks are now aligned in pause mode, but their economies are diverging. With Swedish prospects improving and Norwegian headwinds mounting, we are turning overweight on Swedish equities and shorting NOK/SEK.
In the absence of official government data, investors are turning to alternative sources to gauge the direction of the US economy. Our analysis of this data suggests that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace over the past two months. If the Supreme Court were to strike down the tariffs, this would reduce the near-term odds of a recession while raising the odds of overheating.
The Bank of England will resume rate cuts in December after the autumn budget is passed. Today’s Strategy Insight discusses what this means for UK gilts and the pound.
Long-term investors should own gold. The network effect that makes gold the physical ‘insurance asset’ of choice will generate long-term outperformance. But long-term investors should also own bitcoin. The network effect that makes bitcoin the digital ‘insurance asset’ of choice will generate long-term outperformance that betters even gold.
We recommend a new relative tech equity trade that will likely produce positive returns over the next six to 12 months, regardless of whether the AI hype continues or reverses.
By tracing patterns across China’s past three Five-Year Plans, we reveal how policy cycles shape markets—and what investors should expect in the next five years.
Brazil’s bleak macro outlook persists – rising debt, weak productivity, and political inertia. With 2026 elections looming, genuine reform seems unlikely, though Argentina’s bold turnaround could pressure Brasília to rethink its cycle of governability over growth.
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.
Fresh off a month of boning up on all things AI, we walk through a high-level Q&A discussing AI capex and how much the AI investing boom is really contributing to US growth.
MacroQuant is tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold and copper.