The BCA Way
Our Philosphy, Your Edge
Our framework – which we call THE BCA WAY – has guided BCA Research since 1949. It has enabled us to become the largest independent macro research firm in the world. And it allows us to spot market turning points when it matters most.
Macro Obsessed
Asset allocation – not stock picking – drives portfolio performance, and that’s been core to our longevity. Our focus is on the big picture, addressing all major asset classes, whether equities, fixed income, FX, commodities, energy or private markets across various regions/geographies.
We aim for long-lasting, positive impact on our clients’ portfolios.
Specialized
From China to commodities, fixed income to private markets, we rely on seasoned, specialist professionals for deep insights.
Complex areas demand coordinated expertise. Our range of expertise allows us to connect the dots across all asset classes, markets, and regions.
Data Driven
We don’t cherry-pick charts to fit a narrative – we let the data take the lead. We bring key data to clients, preventing them from drowning in the details.
Our heritage is deep, and we’ve built 75 years’ worth of proprietary indicators, providing evidenced backing behind our calls and predictions.
Ideology Neutral
We tap into the best ideas across all macroeconomic schools and use various frameworks as and when relevant. But with 75 years of history, we know that liquidity, debt, credit cycles, and fundamentals are key.
We use the same framework in our geopolitical analysis, remaining free from national and ideological biases.
Fiercely Independent
We do not trade, manage money, or provide investment banking services. Our loyalty is to one thing: delivering sharp, unconflicted investment recommendations on behalf of our clients. We call it like we see it, even when it’s bold, controversial, or against consensus.
When the market zigs, we’re not afraid to zag – and we’re more than happy to make our positions known in the public domain.
Art, Not Science
Economic insights are vital, but markets don’t always play by the rules. We bridge the gap between economic science and markets and ensure that every piece of our analysis undergoes the “so what?” test.
Big Thinkers
With the largest macro-focused team among independent research houses, we marry deep expertise with broad thematic thinking. We have six offices globally, 16 senior strategists, and 60+ researchers – vast, borderless reach.
Argumentative,
In The Best Way
If you’re ever watched BCA Live & Unfiltered (BLU), you’ll know that our views emerge from robust internal debates, challenges, and intellectual sparring matches. Debate sharpens our insights and acts as quality control of our analysis.
“BCA Research is a must-have for any investor looking to gain an informational edge in today's complex markets. Between the insightful reports, webcasts, and direct access to the strategists, we receive a constant stream of cutting-edge investment insights.”
Chief Investment Officer, Polus Capital
"BCA Research is a must-have for any investor looking to gain an informational edge in today's complex markets. Between the insightful reports, webcasts, and direct access to the strategists, we receive a constant stream of cutting-edge investment insights."
Chief Investment Officer, Polus Capital
"BCA delivers precise, non-consensus views that set us apart in the market. Their sharp insights provide the clarity and confidence needed to navigate complex investment landscapes with distinction."
Feri Finance AG
"I received hundreds of research notes every day from investment banks, research outfits, and even substacks. But BCA Research's content is by far the best.
It is insightful, deeply researched, and your analysts are incredibly responsive and helpful in sharing their work. The logic, argumentation and willingness to consider counterpoints to challenge groupthink is top notch."
Economics Writer, Financial Times
BCA understands the world differently
Our time-tested investment frameworks, out-of-the-box thinking, and culture of internal debates enables us to see around corners.
For 75 years, we've been more right than wrong, which we've been thrilled to see benefit our clients. Below are 17 of our favorite calls.
Nov 2024
Correctly forecast the Trump Bond Market Riot (and US election)
Maintained a 55%-65% probability of a Trump victory from December 2023 until the election, focusing mainly on the curve steepening and short duration positions to play the second coming of the Human Steepener.
Nov 2023
Buy European equities
European Investment Strategy recommended European equities, and the overall index rallied by 20% in eight months.
Sep 2023
Predicted Middle East Crisis
Geopolitical Strategy predicted Middle East crisis and favored US equities over global.
May 2023
Go Long US Large Bank Bonds
Shortly after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, US Bond Strategy recommended taking advantage of the spread widening in bank bonds by going long the bonds of the largest US banks.
Mar 2023
Long Chinese government bonds
Counterpoint service argued that the end of China’s housing boom will unleash a debt deflation in China. Bond yields have plunged since then.
Feb 2023
Warned that the China reopening rally would falter
After the rebound in Chinese share prices in late 2022 and January 2023, Emerging Markets Strategy argued that the economic recovery would disappoint and downgraded Chinese offshore stocks from neutral to underweight. The MSCI China Investable equity index dropped by 32% in the following 12 months.
Jun 2022 & Jan 2023
Go Long Gold
Foreign Exchange Strategy and Commodity And Energy Strategy predicted the gold rally.
Dec 2022
Championed Theme of Immaculate Disinflation
Going into 2023, Global Investment Strategy predicted that it would be a year of immaculate disinflation and that share prices would move higher.
Sep 2022
High-Conviction “No Recession” And Equity Rally Calls
While most others were calling for an imminent downturn, Global Investment Strategy and US Investment Strategy argued that the US would avert a recession for some time and that stocks would rebound.
Jul - Sep 2022
Stay Positive on US Consumers
US Investment Strategy pushed back against concerns about the US consumer spending outlook.
Jun 2022
China would reopen sooner than expected, but then economy would stall anyway
Geopolitical Strategy predicted that China would reopen sooner than expected, but then the economy would stall anyway – the link
Jun 2022
Chinese consumer deleveraging
China Investment Strategy predicted household deleveraging will become a new trend in China.
Jan 2022
Predicted Ukraine war
Geopolitical Strategy predicted Ukraine war, shorted the Russian ruble.
Mar 2021
Downgraded EM equities again and shorted select EM currencies.
Emerging Markets Strategy warned that rising US bond yields and weakening global growth warranted weaker EM risk assets and currencies. Over the following three years, EM stocks fell 17% in absolute terms and underperformed DM equities by 33%. Many EM currencies also depreciated considerably.
Feb 2021
Predicted Higher US Inflation and A Reversal In US Stock-to-Bond Correlation
Emerging Markets Strategy predicted a material rise in US inflation and a change in US stock-to-bond correlation.
Oct 2020
Go Short Bond Duration
US Bond Strategy went short duration in October 2020 in advance of the US election. Our view was that a democratic sweep of the election would lead to fiscal stimulus, more rapid economic growth and rising inflation.
Mar 2020
Bet on US corporate spread narrowing
US Bond Strategy went long corporate bonds versus Treasuries in March 2020 on the view that the Fed’s monetary easing and intervention in the corporate bond market would tighten spreads.
Our Strategists
Our research team is supported by an environment conducive to independent, non-consensus thought.
