Jeremie Peloso | BCA Research

CoreMacro FICC

Higher Yields, Better Bets?

The global bond selloff is not over, but opportunities are emerging. US Treasuries and French OATs remain vulnerable to further selling, while other European government bonds look increasingly attractive. Investors should favor German Bunds and peripheral bonds, particularly on a currency-hedged basis.
Jeremie Peloso 3 hours ago
- Bonds
- Inflation
- Fiscal
CoreMacro FICC

France: The Powder Keg Ignites

Forced selling may be approaching a pause, but France’s fiscal and political adjustment has barely begun. Maintain an underweight in OATs and use relief rallies to reduce exposure. Contained contagion is reassuring for Europe; it is not a buy signal for France.
Jeremie Peloso 05 Oct 2026
FICC CoreMacro

Central Bank Monitor Update: The Limits Of The New Tightening Cycle

Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricing is justified and identify tactical opportunities across global bond and currency markets.
Deborah Acri, Jeremie Peloso, Menglin Ji, Sanjiv Thomas 22 Sep 2026
- BCA Indicators/Model
- Monetary Policy
CoreMacro

China Shock 2.0: Europe Strikes Back

China shock 2.0 threatens Europe’s industrial core, but it is also forcing a long-overdue response. China stands to lose more than the EU from the coming confrontation. Beijing cannot afford to alienate Europe while its domestic demand remains weak. Europe, meanwhile, can turn protectionism into a stronger fiscal multiplier and an industrial revival.
Jeremie Peloso 18 Sep 2026
- China
- Trade
- Europe
CoreMacro

Europe’s Earnings Renaissance: Can It Last?

Europe’s earnings recovery is increasingly difficult to dismiss. Margins, ROE, ROIC, and capital efficiency have all improved, while banks have re-emerged as an earnings engine. Cyclical conditions remain supportive, and the structural picture continues to improve: higher investment, improving productivity, and EU reforms could give the recovery staying power.
Jeremie Peloso 07 Sep 2026
CoreMacro

Poland: Superstar Or Shooting Star?

Poland’s near-term growth story remains compelling: surging EU investment should cushion European weakness and support equity outperformance. But the clock is ticking. Demographics, skills shortages, and fiscal deterioration will increasingly constrain convergence. Favor Polish equities and the belly of the curve; expect further near-term zloty weakness against the euro.
Jeremie Peloso 27 Aug 2026
- Poland
- Fiscal
- Equities
CoreMacro FICC

Sweden And Norway: A Reversal Of Fortunes

The war in Iran and the energy shock are driving a reversal of Nordic fortunes: Sweden’s recovery is faltering just as Norway receives a welcome energy windfall. Favor Norwegian over Swedish equities and buy NOK/SEK. In rates, fade aggressive Riksbank hike expectations and downgrade Norwegian government bonds to neutral.
Jeremie Peloso, Artem Sakhbiev, Menglin Ji 18 Aug 2026
- Sweden
- Norway
- Inflation
CoreMacro FICC

Will Europe Avoid A Recession? Two Perspectives

Europe faces a difficult macro backdrop, but whether it slips into recession remains finely balanced. We present two perspectives before translating them into investment implications.
Jeremie Peloso, Mathieu Savary 24 Jul 2026
GeoMacro CoreMacro

France Is Sitting On A Powder Keg

We wish all our French clients Bonne Fête Nationale! The rest of the world knows the holiday by its other name, Bastille Day. It is fitting, therefore, that we publish today GeoMacro Beta report on the coming political earthquake in France.

Jeremie Peloso 14 Jul 2026
CoreMacro

Westminster Is On The Ropes, UK Risk Assets Aren't

The UK economy is becoming increasingly fragile, but the investment outlook is improving. Slower growth and a more dovish BoE will support gilts, while UK equities will likely benefit from a favorable sector mix and a weaker pound.
Ayaan Sohhel, Jeremie Peloso 06 Jul 2026
- Fiscal
- Energy