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Marko Papic

Chief Investment Strategist & Head of GeoMacro

Marko Papic translates geopolitical and macroeconomic trends into actionable investment implications through a framework he calls GeoMacro. Marko leads the firm’s premier…
Marko Papic
  • GeoMacro

    Woke 2.0 Can (And Will) Win In 2028

    Our colleague Matt Gertken has penned a sober analysis on the midterms, calling for a Democratic Party sweep in 2026. It is a measured, data-driven, analysis that we encourage you to read.This quick Insight is neither sober nor data driven. It is hyperbolic and based on “vibes.”

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    How Will US-Iran Conflict Reshape The World?

    Many clients have asked us for an analysis of the long-term implications of the Hormuz Crisis. In this report, we posit that the conflict has been catalyzed by the multipolar context and that it will merely ossify the trends already afoot. Nothing offers incentives for more global capex like the threat of losing a critical energy supply chain. Therein lies the paradox. While capex is mildly inflationary in the short term, it is wildly disinflationary in the long term. This may be a worthwhile insight given all the consternation about long-dated bonds at the moment.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Oh America: Why Trade War Is Good For Canada

    Canada may welcome a trade skirmish with the US. It has ample fiscal room with which to retaliate and its domestic political calculus – with bubbling risk of secession – means that fighting an external threat is a boon, not a bore.

    Marko Papic, Matt Gertken

  • Peak Iran Leverage?

    Iran may be approaching peak leverage over Hormuz as more oil appears to be getting through, and its ability to disrupt traffic weakens. Reports over the weekend suggested that 75-80% of normal oil traffic may now be moving through the Strait, according to US…

    Marko Papic, Felix Vezina-Poirier

  • GeoMacro

    Here, There, and Everywhere Report - August 2026

    We remain tactically bullish due to the combination of geopolitical risks in the Middle East easing and the ramping up of the AI boom. In this month’s chartpack, we articulate the reasoning behind both sanguine views.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Only The Ayatollah And Putin Can Save The Bears Now

    Last month we "stuck our neck out" and reaffirmed our bullishness towards risk asset. This month, we have confirmation that the risky bet is paying off. Iran and the US remain materially constrained from total war. The AI capex thesis is holding up and slowly mutating into a price war that will only boost adoption and necessitate more investment. We open a new AI-related trade (long hard disk makers) and go long gold.

    Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky

  • GeoMacro

    The Houthis Are Irrelevant

    The Strait of Hormuz is a unique geographical feature. Other than the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits that allow passage between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea (via the Sea of Marmara), there are very few other such, economically valuable, choke points. What many armchair geopolitical strategists consider “critical” naval routes – Strait of Malacca, Panama Canal, Suez – are really just pathways of convenience. “Nice to haves” – in that they significantly reduce sailing times – as opposed to the “must have” that is Hormuz.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Coloring Increasingly Outside The Lines

    In our last update on the Iran-US conflict, we noted that both sides in the conflict (all three, if we include Israel) were “coloring inside the lines.” By that we meant that they were abiding by the “red lines” of kinetic activity established in the heat of the first iteration of the Iran conflict. Specifically, we noted that investors should watch carefully for any sign that attacks were spreading beyond military facilities.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro CoreMacro Portfolio

    Bull/Bear Debate: Buy Dips Or Sell Strength In 2H2026?

    BCA's bull/bear debate webcast, held on July 13, 2026 (replay here) and moderated by Chief Investment Strategist Marko Papic, pitted Peter Berezin and Arthur Budaghyan on the bearish side against Juan Correa and Noah Weisberger on the bullish side. This edited summary condenses, reorganizes by theme, and lightly paraphrases their remarks.

    Noah Weisberger, Marko Papic, Peter Berezin, Arthur Budaghyan, Juan Correa

  • GeoMacro

    Bitcoin: To Mine Or Not To Mine

    Bitcoin miners are transitioning from a pure crypto play to AI infrastructure landlords, offering investors exposure to both a crypto recovery and the surge in secular power demand driven by the AI capex buildout.

    Jose Yanes, Marko Papic

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