Max Malakhveitchouk
Research Associate
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Mexico: An Export Boom Without A Productivity Lift
We continue to overweight Mexican stocks, local bonds, sovereign credit, and currency within their respective EM portfolios. Also, stay long Mexican equities / short the S&P500.
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Colombia: The Rally Is Borrowed
The rally in Colombia’s financial markets has a short shelf life. The election will bring a right-wing government, but it cannot fix inflation, fiscal arithmetic, or balance-of-payments vulnerabilities. Use the near-term rally to downgrade Colombian fixed income and equities.
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Peru: Election Boosts Markets
Peru is well established to elect a pro-market government in the June 7 run-off, with institutional constraints limiting left-tail policy risks. We will go long Peruvian assets when Hormuz volatility subsides.
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A Short Geopolitical Outlook For 2026
2026 will see geopolitical risk move sideways globally as the US pursues a ceasefire in the proxy war with Russia and a tariff truce with China ahead of midterm elections that will produce gridlock.
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Our Best And Worst Calls Of 2025
We got Trump's tariff shock and backtracking correct and predicted Israel's attack on Iran. But we missed the China rally — and there is still no Ukraine ceasefire.
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Maduro’s Last Barrel
US intervention will likely force out Maduro from Venezuela and reopen the economy. This could increase Venezuelan crude production in the long run, a modestly bearish outcome for oil markets over cyclical and structural horizons.
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Brazil: Opportunity Meets Reality
Brazil’s bleak macro outlook persists – rising debt, weak productivity, and political inertia. With 2026 elections looming, genuine reform seems unlikely, though Argentina’s bold turnaround could pressure Brasília to rethink its cycle of governability over growth.
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Geopolitics And US Politics, Q4
Rising Russia-NATO risks, tactical oil/gold trades, tougher sanctions on Russia (maybe China), China stimulus with ~5% growth target, and US checks on Trump’s ambitions will define Q4.
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Peru: Buy The Dip On Political Turmoil
Peru’s April 2026 election will inject political volatility, but fundamentals are strong and we are constructive. Buy gold mining equities and gold on dips to capture the supportive global cycle and wait for a more attractive entry point for Peruvian assets.
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One Big Beautiful Basket
Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven, uncertain environment.