The rush to build AI infrastructure is based on a false premise: that there are significant advantages to being the first to come to market.

The AI boom has had less of an impact on the economy than widely believed. This may eventually change, but the risk is that investors grow impatient before it does.

Special Report

Provided that humanity can overcome the existential risks posed by AI, real incomes will rise. Although most workers will ultimately gain from the transition to an AI-dominated economy, the biggest winners will be those who control…

Although the sell-off in the US dollar and relative outperformance of non-US stocks will pause over the coming months as a global recession begins, the fading of US exceptionalism will still cause the dollar to weaken and US stocks…

This report looks at investment implications, for Norwegian assets, given the recent meeting, from the Norges Bank. 

Special Report

In Section II, Jonathan presents a checklist that investors can use to confirm whether AI’s purported productivity gains are real. The checklist does not currently suggest that artificial intelligence is meaningfully boosting…

In Section I, Doug notes that the chaos of the new administration, including bellicose tariff threats and DOGE’s abrasive and indiscriminate approach, are sowing uncertainty and fortifying economic headwinds. Lowered guidance of…

Special Report

We anticipate decisive tariff measures early in Trump’s second term. In this Special Report, we explore how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, U.S. importers, and consumers.

Special Report

US assets and the US dollar should remain resilient relative to global peers over the next 12 months as policy uncertainty, election risk, and geopolitical risk reach a climax. After that, investors should reassess their regional…