Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities
Translate fast-moving political and geopolitical developments into probability-weighted market risks, opportunities, and positioning implications.
Gina Did Win… Now What?
On October 13, we asked what would happen “if Gina wins?” Gina Hinojosa, a Democratic state legislator from the traditionally Republican-voting Texas, was at the time given only a 1-in-5 chance of win…
The Real Meaning Of The Midterms
US institutions are prevailing over an unorthodox personality, implying policy adjustment and a decent backdrop for equity markets. But the Iran war is an immediate and acute risk to the global macro…
Capitulation... You On Stocks Or Trump On Iran
October has been a bad month for equities — particularly AI/tech ones — and a great month for oil. We do not think that the AI supercycle is ending, it has more room to go. Token price decline is a si…
Democratic Victory Not A Market Risk
Democrats look to be clinching a Senate victory in the final day of the campaign, but Iran, not the Senate, poses the real risk.
Israel: An Upside Risk To Oil
Another Netanyahu-led government would raise the risk of Israeli escalation and a major oil supply shock, while an opposition victory would reduce, but not eliminate, this risk due to its greater coor…
Have We Seen Le Peak Yet In French Yields?
France’s fiscal mess is far from over, but the bond vigilantes may have gotten ahead of themselves. We book profits on short OATs, eyeing another opportunity in early 2027 as election risks resurface.…
