Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities
Translate fast-moving political and geopolitical developments into probability-weighted market risks, opportunities, and positioning implications.
October Surprise – More War
Iran is effectively trying to create an “October surprise,” an adage that refers to a pre-election crisis that alters the trajectory of polling and the eventual outcome. It is likely to be successful,…
Democrats Will Take The Senate
Democrats will win both houses in the midterm, but beyond near-term volatility, none of the outcomes pose a major market risk. The vote is more important as a signal of an anti-business turn in US pol…
What If Gina Wins?
Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate seat, James Talarico, has been leading his opponent, Republican Ken Paxton, for over a month in the betting markets. At the moment, Talarico’s probability of…
Houthis Shift From Energy To Civilian Infrastructure
Markets woke up to twin Houthi attacks on October 12. On October 9, the Yemen-based, Iran-allied, militant group attacked the King Khalid International Airport with a missile, killing 12 civilians and…
Global Risk Outlook Q4 2026
We keep the Global Geopolitical Risk Score at 8 because there are still no ceasefires in Europe or the Middle East. Russia is provoking NATO, which will need to push back. Iran, emboldened by the lack…
A Bad Place For A Plague
The Irkutsk plague scare is not yet a crisis, but if it becomes one, Russia is a bad place for it to happen.
