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Marko Papic

Chief Investment Strategist & Head of GeoMacro

Marko Papic translates geopolitical and macroeconomic trends into actionable investment implications through a framework he calls GeoMacro. Marko leads the firm’s premier…
Marko Papic
  • What Matters In The Midterms?
    GeoMacro
    What Matters In The Midterms?
    We still think Democrats will sweep the midterms. But what do opinion polls and betting markets say? President Trump will veto any market-hostile policies from a Democratic Congress. How would different midterm scenarios affect US policy options?...
    Marko Papic, Matt Gertken
    05 Oct 2026, 10:30 EDT, 15:30 BST
  • GeoMacro

    The Regulatory Pendulum Is Swinging – America Is Becoming Europe

    Most investors would argue that Europe overregulates relative to the US. However, that was not always the case. Political Scientist David Vogel of University of California, Berkeley, posited that the two economies shifted models in the 1990s. Prior to that decade, the US led health, safety, and environmental regulations, having far more stringent rules than Europe. As a prominent example of this, it was the US that quickly banned all non-essential CFCs, chemicals that harm the ozone layer, whereas European governments did not act initially, favoring their industries while awaiting evidence.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    The Wolf That Cried “Wolf!” – Don’t Fall For AI Alarmism

    The world has descended into a full blown Doomer panic since the 27-year-old Anthropic engineer quit over the threat that AI would cause human extinction. Now-famous Jacob Coxon posted that “The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt.”

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Pirates Get Paid: Limited Upside To Crude From Here

    The situation in the Middle East is becoming complicated. Over the past week, several events raise the odds that Brent prices could burst through their 2026 high of $126 per barrel.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Here, There, and Everywhere Report - September 2026

    Dear Friends,Does the world need an 87-page deck? Probably not. But you're getting it regardless. We are itching to turn bond bullish and we remain equity bulls for now. Are there risks to these views, you bet. Thus the 87 pages. Plenty for bulls and bears alike. But if you were to pin us down to the main risk in 2027, it would be a combination of Midterm Dem sweep and end of Iran war. End of Iran war? Yes, indeed. If the economy can withstand high interest rates and gasoline prices today (Chart of the Month), what is it going to do next year if both abate? The Fed does not have an inflation problem today, but it may next year. For an in depth analysis of these topics, read my full Here, There, and Everywhere Chartpack.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    No Exodus From Treasuries … For Now

    There is no evidence that there is a run on US government bonds. All the data at our disposal, and the curated views of our bond specialists, suggest that the US bond market may have 99 problems, but a coordinated run on its safe haven status is not one.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Trading Bonds On Vibes

    Markets have become obsessed with the rise of global long-dated yields. To some extent, we agree with the concern. Bonds are trading on "vibes," alarmed by the incoherent US geopolitical policy. Oil prices are obviously the conduit between that policy and the markets. On the other hand, growth is also robust. As such, bond market selloff is not all just negativity.The one secular theme driving the bond market selloff that does not bother us all that much is fiscal policy. We see signs — including actual budget deficit data! — that the US, policymakers and voters alike, is starting to understand that there are limits to profligacy. As such, we would advise clients with a long term focus to begin nibbling at the hated bonds.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Woke 2.0 Can (And Will) Win In 2028

    Our colleague Matt Gertken has penned a sober analysis on the midterms, calling for a Democratic Party sweep in 2026. It is a measured, data-driven, analysis that we encourage you to read.This quick Insight is neither sober nor data driven. It is hyperbolic and based on “vibes.”

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    How Will US-Iran Conflict Reshape The World?

    Many clients have asked us for an analysis of the long-term implications of the Hormuz Crisis. In this report, we posit that the conflict has been catalyzed by the multipolar context and that it will merely ossify the trends already afoot. Nothing offers incentives for more global capex like the threat of losing a critical energy supply chain. Therein lies the paradox. While capex is mildly inflationary in the short term, it is wildly disinflationary in the long term. This may be a worthwhile insight given all the consternation about long-dated bonds at the moment.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Oh America: Why Trade War Is Good For Canada

    Canada may welcome a trade skirmish with the US. It has ample fiscal room with which to retaliate and its domestic political calculus – with bubbling risk of secession – means that fighting an external threat is a boon, not a bore.

    Marko Papic, Matt Gertken

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