GeoMacro

Turn geopolitical uncertainty into market conviction.

A constraints-based framework that connects politics, policy, and geopolitics to portfolio decisions, so you can price political risk and position ahead of consensus, not react to the headlines.

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The GeoMacro Edge

From political reality to portfolio positioning.

Politics moves markets, but punditry doesn't move portfolios. Most of what reaches your desk is commentary: what leaders say they want, framed as what will happen. The hard part is turning a view on a conflict, an election, or a trade fight into a sized position you can defend, before the market reprices. GeoMacro closes that gap.

A proprietary geopolitical framework

Move beyond political commentary.

A constraints-based approach evaluates what policymakers and political actors can realistically do, not simply what they say they want. By connecting geopolitics, policy, macro, and markets, it surfaces what markets may be mispricing.

Structured scenarios, not opinions

Replace uncertainty with probability-weighted conviction.

Explicit scenarios, likelihoods, timelines, and portfolio implications give you what you need to size positions, manage risk, and act with greater confidence.

From mispricing to positioning

Identify opportunities before consensus catches up.

GeoMacro identifies gaps between political reality and market expectations and translates them into positioning across asset classes, regions, sectors, and themes.

See It For Yourself

Latest research from GeoMacro.

A sample of recent GeoMacro reports, refreshed as our strategists publish.

In 2026, against the backdrop of plunging birth rates around the world, investors were focused on AI bottlenecks. Little did they know that the biggest bottleneck to artificial intelligence was, ironi…

Oct 1, 2026

FICC Q4 Strategy Outlook: Climbing The Wall Of Worry

Fixed Income, Currencies & Commodities

by Mathieu Savary, Ryan Swift, Roukaya Ibrahim, Robert Timper, Artem Sakhbiev

Politics, wars, a global tightening cycle, doubts over AI capex: the wall of worry keeps rising. But the spark that would topple risk assets is missing. Our Q4 FICC outlook explains why to stay long r…

Oct 1, 2026

Quarterly TAA: Picking Up $20 Bills In Front Of The Steamroller

Global Asset Allocation

by Juan Correa, Brian Payne

Higher rates have changed the opportunity set. Overweight High-Yield Credit, both within asset allocation and versus Private Credit. Investors are no longer picking up pennies in front of a steamrolle…

The Framework In Practice

Hear the framework in the strategists' own words.

The same team institutional investors rely on, walking through how the constraints-based framework reads the moment and what it means for positioning.

The point of GeoMacro.

Marko Papic, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of GeoMacro, on separating political noise from what constraints actually allow.

Reading the geopolitical cycle.

Matt Gertken, Head of GeoMacro, on turning scenarios and timelines into positioning across markets.

Who It's For

Built for the investors who can't ignore politics.

For anyone whose positioning is exposed to elections, conflict, trade policy, and regime shifts, and who needs a framework rather than a feed of opinions.

Asset managers

Multi-asset shops positioning across regions.

Teams that need timely, actionable geopolitical conclusions with direct implications for positioning, hedging, and risk management.

Hedge funds & multi-strategy

Investors trading the inflection points.

Fast-moving desks that need a clear read on catalysts as events develop, with the timelines and probabilities to trade them.

Asset owners & family offices

Long-horizon allocators navigating multipolarity.

Sovereign wealth funds, pensions, and family offices that need a clear, non-partisan view they can explain and defend.

WHAT YOU RECEIVE

Everything in GeoMacro.

Probability-weighted scenarios and market implications
Geopolitical risk and mispricing analysis
Investment conclusions drawn from geopolitical developments

Actionable positioning guidance across markets
Timely insight on market-moving political events
Direct access to GeoMacro strategists

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Cards

What Success Looks Like

Act early, and back it up later.

See it sooner. Spot where political reality and market prices have drifted apart, while there is still time to act on it.
Put it to work. Carry each call through to a concrete view on what to own, what to fund it with, and what to hedge.

Act with conviction. Trade an event with a clear read on the odds and the timeline, rather than waiting to see how it plays out.
Defend it in the room. Explain the reasoning to an investment committee, a board, or a client without falling back on opinion.