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Report
US Inflation Chartpack: Too Soon To Look For Peak Bond Yields
US inflation came in hot for the second consecutive month in September, though probably not hot enough for the Fed to move its next rate hike up to the October meeting....
US Fixed Income
11 hours ago
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Report
October Surprise – More War
Iran is effectively trying to create an “October surprise,” an adage that refers to a pre-election crisis that alters the trajectory of polling and the eventual outcome. It is likely to be successful, with oil prices likely to face upward momentum from here. The intention would be to ensure that oil...
Iran Oil
12 hours ago
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Report
Private Markets Meet Higher Rates: Don’t Bank On 2000 Risk Premiums
With capital locked up for years, scenario analysis is especially valuable for Private Market investors. We provide a framework for mapping returns on new investments if the US 10-year yield hits 6.5%, a level last seen in 2000. Just do not expect the risk premiums of that era....
Private Markets Private Real Estate
13 hours ago
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Report
Argentina: All Destruction, No Creation – Take Profits
If President Milei does not ease policy immediately to contain the disinflationary squeeze, he is likely to lose next year's election. This means neoliberal structural reforms will suffer a setback in subsequent years. Close long positions in Argentine assets....
Argentina Domestic Politics
14 hours ago
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Webcast Replay
Midterm Election: The BCA Forecast

Please join Head of GeoMacro, Matt Gertken along with GeoMacro Strategist Jesse Kuri for a Webcast, Midterm Election: The BCA Forecast.

Topics discussed:

  • Will Democrats win the Senate or not? Yes. What happens if they fall short? Nothing!
  • How will markets react to different midterm scenarios? A Democratic victory raises odds of a Blue sweep in 2028, and tax hikes in 2029!
  • Will the US escalate the war with Iran after the midterm? Yes, but only marginally. Constraints still apply.
  • Will President Trump "go abroad" after Congress gets divided? Yes, but mostly to negotiate CEASEFIRES.
  • Will Trump slap tariffs on the world in 2027? Yes, though he cannot jeopardize the business cycle. So ... beware retaliation!
  • What are the midterm implications for the 2028 election and US policy going forward? How will global policies and markets respond?
Watch Now
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Report
Democrats Will Take The Senate
Democrats will win both houses in the midterm, but beyond near-term volatility, none of the outcomes pose a major market risk. The vote is more important as a signal of an anti-business turn in US policy in coming years, which markets could start to price in late 2027 or early 2028....
US Election Policy
18 hours ago
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Report
Here, There, and Everywhere Report - October 2026
The big risk for the markets remains a flare up in the Middle East conflict. The Fed appears to be targeting geopolitics as much as inflation fundamentals. By the logic of transitive properties, therefore, more war means more hikes. That’s negative. So why are we not bearish on equities and bonds? B...
US Election Oil
13 Oct 2026
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Report
What If Gina Wins?
Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate seat, James Talarico, has been leading his opponent, Republican Ken Paxton, for over a month in the betting markets. At the moment, Talarico’s probability of turning the Texas Senate seat blue is a whopping 65%. This is partly a result of Paxton’s flawed can...
US Election Domestic Politics
13 Oct 2026
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Report
Houthis Shift From Energy To Civilian Infrastructure
Markets woke up to twin Houthi attacks on October 12. On October 9, the Yemen-based, Iran-allied, militant group attacked the King Khalid International Airport with a missile, killing 12 civilians and injuring over 300. Following that attack, President Trump suggested that the US “may” join Saudi Ar...
Saudi Arabia Oil
12 Oct 2026
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Report
A House Divided: Index Calm Masking Election Risk
Betting markets give Democrats a 90%-plus chance of flipping the House, but history suggests a midterm flip is business as usual, not a signal for 2028. Volatility measures suggest little of the typical election risk is priced at the index level, but stock-level volatility is elevated, particularly ...
US Election
12 Oct 2026