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Upcoming Webcast

Please join Head of GeoMacro, Matt Gertken along with GeoMacro Strategists Jesse Kuri and Yushu Ma for a Webcast, Midterm Election: The BCA Forecast.

Wednesday, October 14
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Topics to be discussed:

  • Will Democrats win the Senate or not? Yes. What happens if they fall short? Nothing!
  • How will markets react to different midterm scenarios? A Democratic victory raises odds of a Blue sweep in 2028, and tax hikes in 2029!
  • Will the US escalate the war with Iran after the midterm? Yes, but only marginally. Constraints still apply.
  • Will President Trump "go abroad" after Congress gets divided? Yes, but mostly to negotiate CEASEFIRES.
  • Will Trump slap tariffs on the world in 2027? Yes, though he cannot jeopardize the business cycle. So ... beware retaliation!
  • What are the midterm implications for the 2028 election and US policy going forward? How will global policies and markets respond?
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The big risk for the markets remains a flare up in the Middle East conflict. The Fed appears to be targeting geopolitics as much as inflation fundamentals. By the logic of transitive properties, therefore, more war means more hikes. That’s negative. So why are we not bearish on equities and bonds? B...
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Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate seat, James Talarico, has been leading his opponent, Republican Ken Paxton, for over a month in the betting markets. At the moment, Talarico’s probability of turning the Texas Senate seat blue is a whopping 65%. This is partly a result of Paxton’s flawed can...
6 hours ago
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Markets woke up to twin Houthi attacks on October 12. On October 9, the Yemen-based, Iran-allied, militant group attacked the King Khalid International Airport with a missile, killing 12 civilians and injuring over 300. Following that attack, President Trump suggested that the US “may” join Saudi Ar...
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Betting markets give Democrats a 90%-plus chance of flipping the House, but history suggests a midterm flip is business as usual, not a signal for 2028. Volatility measures suggest little of the typical election risk is priced at the index level, but stock-level volatility is elevated, particularly ...
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Middle Eastern crude exports are back at pre-war levels, yet Brent remains above $100/bbl. We explain why more barrels haven’t meant lower prices, and why policymakers have no clean fix. Even if Putin follows through on his reported agreement to release Russian diesel supplies into global markets, i...
09 Oct 2026
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China's policy stance is gradually becoming more supportive of households, but a decisive reflationary pivot has yet to materialize. In the meantime, we favor large state-owned banks and onshore utilities as defensive plays....
09 Oct 2026
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We review our Model Bond Portfolio performance for Q3 and look ahead as energy prices continue to drive fixed income markets. Balanced labor markets point to a mild tightening cycle, creating opportunities in government bonds and credit, while inflation-linked bonds continue offering protection agai...
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Report
We keep the Global Geopolitical Risk Score at 8 because there are still no ceasefires in Europe or the Middle East. Russia is provoking NATO, which will need to push back. Iran, emboldened by the lack of definitive US success, pushes its luck, which could invite a destructive response from the US. T...
09 Oct 2026
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Report
The global bond selloff is not over, but opportunities are emerging. US Treasuries and French OATs remain vulnerable to further selling, while other European government bonds look increasingly attractive. Investors should favor German Bunds and peripheral bonds, particularly on a currency-hedged bas...
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