Macro Investment Insights & Market Commentary

Upcoming Webcast

Please join BCA Chief Economist Peter Berezin, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of GeoMacro, Marko Papic, and Chief Europe Strategist, Jeremie Peloso, for a Webcast: The Big Debate on Europe: Boom or Doom?

Monday, November 16
10:30 AM EST | 3:30 PM GMT | 4:30 PM CET

Peter, Marko, and Jeremie will discuss/debate:

Is Europe finally changing?
Cheap, or cheap for a reason?
Can investment overcome demographics and weak productivity?
Are the equity themes big enough to move the market?
Does political pressure produce reform or paralysis?
Can European stocks thrive even if Europe struggles?

Register

Report

Bet On Higher US Treasury Yields Into Early 2027

US Treasury yields have fallen below our fair value estimate as investors rotated out of AI equities and into fixed income. We lay out why near-term inflation risks argue for a rebound, and the tactical trades we initiate to position for it....

US Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

29 minutes ago

Report

Sector Chartpack: AI Stumbles, The Index Holds

October saw a 0.9% decline in the S&P 500, dragged lower by Communication Services (-15.1%) and Information Technology (-6.8%). All other sectors delivered positive returns, led by traditional defensives – Health Care (+9.9%), Utilities (+10.2%), Consumer Staples (+11.6%) – and Energy (+14.0%). Alth...

Sectors AI

54 minutes ago

Report

Israel: An Upside Risk To Oil

Another Netanyahu-led government would raise the risk of Israeli escalation and a major oil supply shock, while an opposition victory would reduce, but not eliminate, this risk due to its greater coordination with and deference to the US....

Middle East Oil

1 hour ago

Report

Monthly TAA: AI, Rates, Energy – Are We At The Peak?

Despite October’s AI selloff, indices remain resilient thanks to historically high dispersion. We remain bullish, but with barbells across the portfolio. Hedge equity with equity: Overweight Technology and Healthcare. Remain overweight high yield. Downgrade linkers and upgrade nominal bonds. Upgrade...

AI and Markets Inflation

11 hours ago

Report

New Ideas From The Road

Today's report examines several of the most interesting ideas we've heard over two weeks of meetings and calls with investors....

AI Economy

11 hours ago

Report

MacroQuant Model Update: Show Me The Money

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight to equities and an overweight to bonds and cash. The model is bullish on the US dollar, negative on gold, very negative on copper, and neutral on oil....

BCA Indicators/Model Asset Allocation

30 Oct 2026

Report

Have We Seen Le Peak Yet In French Yields?

France’s fiscal mess is far from over, but the bond vigilantes may have gotten ahead of themselves. We book profits on short OATs, eyeing another opportunity in early 2027 as election risks resurface. Meanwhile, French equities are too cheap to ignore. We tactically buy on depressed valuations....

France Bonds

30 Oct 2026

Report

Measuring AI Moats

Marking the debut of Chief Technology and Innovation Strategist Matt Dyson, this month’s Global Market Outlook examines Matt’s views on the presence and durability of moats for companies at various segments of the AI chain....

AI Monetary Policy

29 Oct 2026

Report

GBP Chartpack: Carry Cushion Masks Structural Cracks

GBP offers attractive carry today, but the market’s aggressive rate hike pricing is likely to turn into a headwind within 12 months. Our latest Currency Chartpack examines the valuation, growth, rate, and policy drivers of the pound, showing why the long-term outlook is less rosy than near-term data...

BCA Indicators/Model Currencies

29 Oct 2026