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Please join Strategists, Mathieu Savary, with Ryan Swift, Roukaya Ibrahim, Robert Timper, and Artem Sakhbiev, for the BCA's Q3 FICC (Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies) Outlook Webcast.
Tuesday, July 14
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST
Where they will discuss our take on the macro forces driving global fixed income, currencies, and commodities into year-end.
Topics to be discussed:
- US rates under a Warsh-led Fed,
- Where G10 central banks diverge from the Fed,
- The best opportunities we see across global bond markets,
- The dollar's path through year-end, and which currencies are set to win or lose most,
- Whether the US-Iran de-escalation holds, and the read-through for oil and the broader commodity complex.
In this webcast, we walked through what worked, what surprised us, and how the model has evolved as the tournament unfolded.
What we’ll cover:
- How did our model perform in the group stage?
- What lessons did we learn from the tournament so far?
- What does our model say about the knockout rounds?
Earnings versus everything else has been an apt description for the macro backdrop during the conflict with Iran. Earnings growth has been red hot, but the Middle East was a mess, oil and other energy-related costs soared, bond yields surged and money markets priced in a central bank U-turn from cuts to hikes. Earnings have carried the day to this point, and we think the equity market has been right to follow them.
Doug discussed the events that could shift the narrative while keeping tabs on the following key drivers:
- The labor market
- Consumption
- Inflation
- Monetary policy
- AI investment
- Portfolio positioning over 3- and 12-month timeframes
Since 2018, we’ve published what we call “The Most Important of All Unimportant Forecasts” – applying the same macro framework we use for markets and the global economy to predict the World Cup. Now, what started as a one-off idea has become a tradition.
We hosted a webcast to walk through the making of the report – how the model has evolved, how we combine quantitative analysis with macro and narrative insights, and why football turns out to be a surprisingly good lens for top-down thinking.
We also shared our final tournament prediction – and attendees will hear it first.
What we covered:
•How the report started – and how it’s improved each cycle
•The blend of data, narrative, and macro behind the model
•Why football lends itself to a top-down framework
•Our final 2026 World Cup call (revealed live)