Insights

Please join Strategists, Mathieu Savary, with Ryan Swift, Roukaya Ibrahim, Robert Timper, and Artem Sakhbiev, for the BCA's Q3 FICC (Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies) Outlook Webcast.

Tuesday, July 14
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Where they will discuss our take on the macro forces driving global fixed income, currencies, and commodities into year-end.

Topics to be discussed:

• US rates under a Warsh-led Fed,
• Where G10 central banks diverge from the Fed,
• The best opportunities we see across global bond markets,
• The dollar's path through year-end, and which currencies are set to win or lose most,
• Whether the US-Iran de-escalation holds, and the read-through for oil and the broader commodity complex.

Please join BCA as our Chief Investment Strategist Marko Papic moderates a debate between equity market bulls Juan Correa and Noah Weisberger, and equity market bears Arthur Budaghyan and Peter Berezin. Four strategists: two competing outlooks, zero house views, all from one firm that fosters truly independent thinking.

Monday, July 13

11:00 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

The Bull Case:

• Highly visible forward earnings drive the market, with backlogs outpacing capacity
• Valuations remain clear of dot-com-era extremes
• Capex boom extends well beyond tech
• Positioning: S&P 500 target raised to 8100; stay overweight equities

The Bear Case:

• Shortage-driven "earnings bubble" – a 30-40% correction looms when it bursts
• AI investment rivals past bubbles; wave of AI IPOs signals late-cycle
• Rising yields and stocks on a collision course; thin breadth points to a coming drawdown
• Bullish on AI technology, bearish on AI profits — expect commoditized models with thin margins
• Positioning: Slight underweight equities; flat-to-down near term, defensive pivot possible later this year

请于2026年7月10日星期五上午10:00 (北京/香港时间)加入中文网络直播，本次活动将由BCA Research首席中国投资策略师司马菁与地缘政治策略师马语书共同主持。

在本次网络直播中，司马菁与马语书将围绕投资者最关心的核心问题展开讨论：

• AI 泡沫论是否成立？哪些关键指标预示着泡沫可能破裂，又将如何冲击全球经济？
• 大类资产何去何从？ BCA 对全球及中国资产走向的判断，美元与主要货币的前景，以及大宗商品的机会所在。
• 伊朗战争真的结束了吗？ 冲突是否会再度升级？油价将走向何方？
• 三季度最大的地缘政治风险来自哪里？
• 美国中期选举最新研判： 谁将胜出？又将带来哪些政策冲击？

Chief Economist Peter Berezin shared his views on the state of the AI trade, the global economy, and the outlook for financial markets.

• Peter has argued that AI is in a bubble but it is a different type of bubble from what investors are used to. Conventional bubbles feature an unsustainable rise in the P/E ratio. When it comes to AI, Peter thinks the bubble is in earnings rather than in valuations.
• Peter discussed what indicators he is tracking to gauge when this earnings bubble might burst and what impact this could have on the global economy.
• Peter shared his thoughts on where bond yields are heading, the outlook for the US dollar and other major currencies, and the likely direction of oil and other commodity prices.

Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan discussed:

• AI Capex: Moving into overshoot territory
• Capex In Advanced Economies: A tailwind for commodities?
• The US Dollar: A new bull market?
• EM Equity Outperformance: Still standing on one leg
• Korean Equities: A “Gangnam style” tantrum
• EM Fixed-Income: Where opportunities are