Insights
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Upcoming Webcast
Please join Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist, Counterpoint, for a Webcast on Friday, November 21, at 10:30 AM EST, 3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET.
In the latest edition of this series of Webcasts, Dhaval will explore where the economic and market consensus is at most risk of being wrong.
Specifically, Dhaval will discuss:
- Why the world’s fate hangs on 2.5 million older Americans.
- Why the bigger risk is that a stock market crash triggers a recession, and not the other way round.
- Why the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target is dead.
- Why asset allocators must pay more attention to ‘skew’.
- The latest asset allocation signals from our proprietary complexity indicators.
Webcast Replay
In this Webcast, Ryan will run through the most important US economic debates of the moment with a focus on the implications for Federal Reserve policy and US bond yields.
Those debates are:
- Is slow employment growth driven predominantly by supply or demand?
- How significant an effect is AI adoption having on unemployment?
- What is underlying US inflation, abstracting from the impact of tariffs?
- Does the “K-shaped recovery” adequately explain the divergence between strong consumer spending and weak employment growth?
Insight
Falling oil prices are countering tariff-driven inflation which, along with a weakening labor market, is reinforcing a long duration stance. Brent crude broke below the $65/bbl support level held since June and WTI is now down 16% from a year ago. Falling oil prices are significant at this stage of ...
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Insight
We expect the divergence between resilient growth and weakening employment to be resolved by lower growth estimates, supporting long duration and steepeners. Economic activity and employment usually move together in a circular relationship: spending drives income and jobs, with income driving subseq...
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Insight
Survey-based data available for September show weakening US growth momentum, supporting modest defensiveness. While the government shutdown may delay official releases, soft data provide a timely view. Our US economic diffusion index, combining more than 80 indicators, points to slowing momentum. Of...
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Insight
Our tactical framework, which tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises, points to stronger near-term growth, leaving equities vulnerable if inflation re-accelerates. Data surprises move markets, while bond yields and the USD in turn shape growth outcomes through ...
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Insight
Powell’s “risk management cut” underscores the Fed’s shift toward growth risks, reinforcing long duration with steepeners. Risk management is central to monetary policy. It determines how policymakers balance uncertainty and decide which mistake is less costly: Cutting too soon and risking infl...
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Insight
Dollar softness has had little growth impact, and European equities should keep lagging. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, but the associated easing in financial conditions has offered minimal support to US growth, reflecting higher term premia rather than a genuine liquidity boost.Yi...
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Insight
May JOLTS data suggest labor market softening beneath the surface, reinforcing a defensive stance across portfolios. Job openings rose to 7.7m from 7.4m, beating estimates, while quits ticked up to 3.3m and layoffs fell to 1.6m. However, hiring edged lower to 5.5m, and openings in cyclical sec...
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Insight
A falling dollar usually eases financial conditions, but recent dollar weakness is unlikely to reverse negative growth surprises, reinforcing our call to sell risk assets on strength. Our tactical framework tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises: data sur...
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