Insights

Survey-based data available for September show weakening US growth momentum, supporting modest defensiveness. While the government shutdown may delay official releases, soft data provide a timely view. Our US economic diffusion index, combining more than 80 indicators, points to slowing momentum. Of...

Our tactical framework, which tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises, points to stronger near-term growth, leaving equities vulnerable if inflation re-accelerates. Data surprises move markets, while bond yields and the USD in turn shape growth outcomes through ...

Powell’s “risk management cut” underscores the Fed’s shift toward growth risks, reinforcing long duration with steepeners. Risk management is central to monetary policy. It determines how policymakers balance uncertainty and decide which mistake is less costly: Cutting too soon and risking infl...

Dollar softness has had little growth impact, and European equities should keep lagging. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, but the associated easing in financial conditions has offered minimal support to US growth, reflecting higher term premia rather than a genuine liquidity boost.Yi...

 May JOLTS data suggest labor market softening beneath the surface, reinforcing a defensive stance across portfolios. Job openings rose to 7.7m from 7.4m, beating estimates, while quits ticked up to 3.3m and layoffs fell to 1.6m. However, hiring edged lower to 5.5m, and openings in cyclical sec...

 A falling dollar usually eases financial conditions, but recent dollar weakness is unlikely to reverse negative growth surprises, reinforcing our call to sell risk assets on strength. Our tactical framework tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises: data sur...

The stock-bond yield correlation is stabilizing after months of jitters, setting the stage for renewed Treasury demand as recession risks build. A negative correlation typically points to inflation concerns, while a positive one reflects growth optimism. In recent months, however, this signal broke ...

The Q1 US GDP contraction and inflation dynamics reinforce our defensive asset allocation. GDP missed estimates and contracted -0.3% annualized, led by a sharp slowdown in net exports. Consumption slid to 1.8% from 4.0%, reflecting falling consumer confidence. Business investment rose modestly, like...

Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer and business confidence have plunged as policy uncertainty and inflation expectations rise, with spending, hiring and capex plans softening.March retail sales were decent but mixed...

April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk assets and industrial commodities. The USTR’s long-awaited report on trade barriers will guide the next phase of US trade policy. While the report only contains a total of 13 pages...