Insights

Please join BCA Strategists Mathieu Savary, Matt Gertken, and Roukaya Ibrahim for a Webcast.

Tuesday, September 1
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Topics to be discussed:

• Markets have seen a series of supply shocks in recent years, from Covid to Ukraine to tariffs to the Iran war.
• How will these shocks evolve going forward? Should investors care more about new tariffs or the Strait of Hormuz?
• How will El Nino impact agricultural commodities and which crops are most exposed?
• How have recent shocks affected commodity prices, inflation, and inflation expectations?
• How will policy makers respond to these shocks? What are the monetary, fiscal, trade, and foreign policy implications?
• How will global financial markets respond? Where are the tactical and cyclical opportunities to be found?

Noah Holds Barred Webcast: Episode 4 (Special Edition): Defense Wins Championships: Aerospace & Defense In A Multipolar World

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist, Matt Gertken, Head of GeoMacro

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, Senior Vice President, Sales

Thursday, August 27
10:30 AM-11:00 AM EDT | 3:30 PM-4:00 PM BST | 4:30 PM-5:00 PM CEST

Key topics discussed:

• The increasing frequency of global conflicts that fail to resolve into durable ceasefires
• Near-term risk to the S&P 500 from an intensification of the Ukraine war
• Risk of a post-midterm re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict
• Trump-Xi thaw and US-China security competition as drivers of global military spending
• The impact of the spending outlook on aerospace and defense stocks
• Do stock prices reflect the impact of a multipolar world?
• Potential ways to hedge ongoing geopolitical tensions

Arthur discussed:

• Global currency markets are on the edge: the US dollar will become pro-cyclical, and the euro will become counter-cyclical.
• This regime shift would upend financial market correlations, and most investment portfolios are not positioned for it.
• The main driver of currency markets will change from interest rates to the balance of payments.
• The dollar’s dependence on net foreign flows into US equities is far greater today than ever.
• A low bar for US dollar depreciation: No net capital outflows necessary — just smaller inflows.
• A weaker US dollar will be deflationary, not reflationary, for the rest of the world.
• EM stocks will not rally in absolute terms despite a weak US dollar.
• Which asset classes and regions will perform the best during this US dollar devaluation?

在本次直播中，BCA Research 中国首席投资策略师司马静（Sima Jing）阐述了BCA对当月全球宏观经济及市场的最新观点。

重点包括：

• 夏季行情还未结束，而秋冬全球市场将怎样演绎？
• 美联储9月加息概率有多大？
• 黄金是否已经见底？美元和日元下一阶段走势如何？
• AI投资热潮能否持续？BCA内部对AI叙事的不同观点。
• 中国及新兴市场企业盈利展望：哪些机会值得关注？

Although the macro backdrop isn’t perfect and the equity setup isn’t ideal, the US economy and the S&P 500 continue to hold their ground. The conflict with Iran resists resolution but the latest flare up is in line with our geopolitical experts’ script, and they are not concerned that it heralds a material escalation. Equity investors have evinced a little discomfort with mushrooming AI investment projections, but we think the hyperscalers’ budgeted expenditures are safe for the next few quarters.

Doug discussed Iran, AI, and other items in investors’ focus, along with the following key drivers:

• The labor market
• Consumption
• Inflation
• Monetary policy
• Corporate earnings

Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Matt Gertken and Chief Commodities Strategist, Roukaya Ibrahim discussed: 

• The geopolitical backdrop remains tricky as the US enters election season amid global struggles.
• The US-China tariff truce is holding for now. But will high-tech restrictions over AI start to rise?
• The mid-August deadline for the US and Iran to forge a real ceasefire is coming soon. Will they agree?
• What happens after the midterm election? Will Trump escalate both the trade war and Iran war?
• Ceasefire violations pose threats to commodity supply. What is the status of oil supply and demand?
• What other factors will drive oil and commodity prices through the end of the year? Is gold a buy?
• What other geopolitical and commodity trends will impact Australia, New Zealand, and the world in the coming months and years?

In this Webcast, Juan and Brian introduced the Portfolio Construction platform and showed how it brought Public and Private Markets together in a unified framework. They also discussed the key allocation views behind why investors:

• Should Overweight Private Equity
• Should rotate out of momentum stocks into quality and hyperscalers
• Should downgrade Late-Stage Venture Capital

Moreover, they reviewed their outlook on the macro economy, fixed income, rates, real estate, infrastructure and liquid alternatives.

Please join Strategists, Mathieu Savary, with Ryan Swift, Roukaya Ibrahim, Robert Timper, and Artem Sakhbiev, for the BCA's Q3 FICC (Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies) Outlook Webcast.

Tuesday, July 14
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Where they will discuss our take on the macro forces driving global fixed income, currencies, and commodities into year-end.

Topics to be discussed:

• US rates under a Warsh-led Fed,
• Where G10 central banks diverge from the Fed,
• The best opportunities we see across global bond markets,
• The dollar's path through year-end, and which currencies are set to win or lose most,
• Whether the US-Iran de-escalation holds, and the read-through for oil and the broader commodity complex.