Insights Gain insight into our independent global macro research through these complimentary reports Tariff Distortions Mask Underlying US Growth Weakness The Q1 US GDP contraction and inflation dynamics reinforce our defensive asset allocation. GDP missed estimates and cont... Will US Hard Data Soften? Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer ... USTR Report Points to China and Europe as Next Trade Targets April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk ... Long Europe/Short US: Too Far, Too Fast Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the ... Trumps Agenda For His Second Term President Trump’s inaugural speech outlined his second term agenda. The theme was that the US will become “far more exce... This Trump Is Different: Three Geopolitical Views For 2025 Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025. ... Fed Beige Book Shows Modest Growth, Cooling Labor Market The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a modestly growing economy imbued with post-election optimism, while highlighting... What’s Next For The Dollar? The US dollar steamrolled its peers since early October. After breaking out above its 200-day moving average, it is now ... China PMIs: A Rebound From Low Levels China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier... Global Manufacturing PMI: Sluggish Growth Points To Lower Returns The October global manufacturing PMI printed at 49.4, up from 48.7 in September but still in contractionary territory. W... A Post-Election US Equities Cheat Sheet Our US Equity strategists prepared a Post-Election US Equity Cheat Sheet. Here are highlights of their recommended posit... A Trump 2.0 Playbook Although foreseen by our US & Geopolitical strategists, a “Red Sweep” now makes the macro environment more volatile.... US Labor Market: Cooling But Not Weak Yet Job openings missed expectations at 7.44 million in September, a mild slowdown from August. The details of the JOLTS rep... Elevated Equity Multiples Point To Low Long-Term Returns Elevated US equities valuations and their impact on returns are a hot topic right now. Valuations are not a tactical or ... Heed The Signal From Commodities As an industrial metal, copper acts as a barometer of economic activity. Silver and gold are safe-haven assets with infl... Seven Geopolitical October Surprises According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, seven surprises with non-negligible odds could tip the scale ... Recession Remains Our Base Case One key takeaway from Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference is the Fed’s unshaken conviction that it can avoid a recess... China Needs Fiscal, Not Monetary Easing The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in la... DM Growth Slows Further In September Preliminary estimates suggest that activity continued to slow across DM economies in September.Manufacturing PMIs contra... How The US Could Cheat A GDP Recession According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘dem... What Could Durably Reverse US Equities’ Relative Outperformance? According to our Bank Credit Analyst service, an inflection point in the relative performance of US stocks is not likely... Eurozone CPI At 3-Year Low Paves Way For September Cut After surprising to the upside in July on higher energy costs, Eurozone CPI resumed its deceleration in August. Headline... Transitions To Serious Delinquencies Will Cap Credit Card Loan Growth Consumer credit growth disappointed in June. Total credit outstanding rose by USD 8.9 billion, in June, lower than May's... If Trump Wins Sunny States, But Dems Hold Pennsylvania According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, there is a strange quirk about Walz and the state of Nebraska... CEOs More Cautious, But Still See No Recession The Conference Board measure of CEO Confidence declined in Q3, from 54 to 52, its lowest level so far this year. Still, ... Is Gold A Good Place To Hide? Despite the recent market rout, gold’s performance has maintained its leadership position. Global equities are up 7.5% i... The Sahm Rule Is Not A Leading Indicator For The Economy Market and economic observers have devoted a lot of attention to the Sahm Rule following July’s employment report, and w... No Improvement In Chinese Inflation China’s CPI and PPI prints surprised to the upside on Friday. Producer prices contracted -0.8%y/y, unchanged from June, ... Investment Implications Of Election and Trump Policies According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the stock market outperformance in 2024 thus far is an unusual p... Trump Wins And Stocks Boom? According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Trump’s agenda is structurally inflationary and would eventua... Trade Policy Under A Second Trump Presidency According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of ... Early-Stage VC: Aerospace & Space Technology According to BCA Research’s Private Markets & Alternatives service, Artificial Intelligence is old news. Given such,... Will Private Investment Save Growth? BCA Research has been writing extensively on how consumption fueled by excess savings has been propping up the US econom... Commodities As A Late-Cycle Investment According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, commodity prices typically rally toward the end of ... Oil Prices Responding To Subdued Demand Conditions Brent prices have fallen 6% so far in July, reversing their June gains. Interestingly, these losses are occurring d... What’s Ailing ASEAN Markets? The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the... China’s Surprise Rate Cut Unlikely To Move the Needle The PBoC lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70% on Monday. The 5-year and 1-year loan prime rates decli... An Iced Beveridge? BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remained tactically bullish on stocks for most of 2023, but shifted to... What To Do About Small Caps The S&P 600 and Russell 2000 have outperformed the S&P 500 by close to 10% since July 9. Small caps typically ou... UK Services Inflation Still Too High For BoE's Comfort UK’s CPI growth stands right on the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. However, services inflation remains sticky, growi... Consumer Credit Increases The Most In Three Months Total consumer credit rose by USD 11.4 billion in May (to USD 5,065 billion outstanding) from a slightly upwardly revise...
Tariff Distortions Mask Underlying US Growth Weakness The Q1 US GDP contraction and inflation dynamics reinforce our defensive asset allocation. GDP missed estimates and cont...
Will US Hard Data Soften? Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer ...
USTR Report Points to China and Europe as Next Trade Targets April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk ...
Long Europe/Short US: Too Far, Too Fast Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the ...
Trumps Agenda For His Second Term President Trump’s inaugural speech outlined his second term agenda. The theme was that the US will become “far more exce...
This Trump Is Different: Three Geopolitical Views For 2025 Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025. ...
Fed Beige Book Shows Modest Growth, Cooling Labor Market The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a modestly growing economy imbued with post-election optimism, while highlighting...
What’s Next For The Dollar? The US dollar steamrolled its peers since early October. After breaking out above its 200-day moving average, it is now ...
China PMIs: A Rebound From Low Levels China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier...
Global Manufacturing PMI: Sluggish Growth Points To Lower Returns The October global manufacturing PMI printed at 49.4, up from 48.7 in September but still in contractionary territory. W...
A Post-Election US Equities Cheat Sheet Our US Equity strategists prepared a Post-Election US Equity Cheat Sheet. Here are highlights of their recommended posit...
A Trump 2.0 Playbook Although foreseen by our US & Geopolitical strategists, a “Red Sweep” now makes the macro environment more volatile....
US Labor Market: Cooling But Not Weak Yet Job openings missed expectations at 7.44 million in September, a mild slowdown from August. The details of the JOLTS rep...
Elevated Equity Multiples Point To Low Long-Term Returns Elevated US equities valuations and their impact on returns are a hot topic right now. Valuations are not a tactical or ...
Heed The Signal From Commodities As an industrial metal, copper acts as a barometer of economic activity. Silver and gold are safe-haven assets with infl...
Seven Geopolitical October Surprises According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, seven surprises with non-negligible odds could tip the scale ...
Recession Remains Our Base Case One key takeaway from Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference is the Fed’s unshaken conviction that it can avoid a recess...
China Needs Fiscal, Not Monetary Easing The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in la...
DM Growth Slows Further In September Preliminary estimates suggest that activity continued to slow across DM economies in September.Manufacturing PMIs contra...
How The US Could Cheat A GDP Recession According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘dem...
What Could Durably Reverse US Equities’ Relative Outperformance? According to our Bank Credit Analyst service, an inflection point in the relative performance of US stocks is not likely...
Eurozone CPI At 3-Year Low Paves Way For September Cut After surprising to the upside in July on higher energy costs, Eurozone CPI resumed its deceleration in August. Headline...
Transitions To Serious Delinquencies Will Cap Credit Card Loan Growth Consumer credit growth disappointed in June. Total credit outstanding rose by USD 8.9 billion, in June, lower than May's...
If Trump Wins Sunny States, But Dems Hold Pennsylvania According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, there is a strange quirk about Walz and the state of Nebraska...
CEOs More Cautious, But Still See No Recession The Conference Board measure of CEO Confidence declined in Q3, from 54 to 52, its lowest level so far this year. Still, ...
Is Gold A Good Place To Hide? Despite the recent market rout, gold’s performance has maintained its leadership position. Global equities are up 7.5% i...
The Sahm Rule Is Not A Leading Indicator For The Economy Market and economic observers have devoted a lot of attention to the Sahm Rule following July’s employment report, and w...
No Improvement In Chinese Inflation China’s CPI and PPI prints surprised to the upside on Friday. Producer prices contracted -0.8%y/y, unchanged from June, ...
Investment Implications Of Election and Trump Policies According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the stock market outperformance in 2024 thus far is an unusual p...
Trump Wins And Stocks Boom? According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Trump’s agenda is structurally inflationary and would eventua...
Trade Policy Under A Second Trump Presidency According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of ...
Early-Stage VC: Aerospace & Space Technology According to BCA Research’s Private Markets & Alternatives service, Artificial Intelligence is old news. Given such,...
Will Private Investment Save Growth? BCA Research has been writing extensively on how consumption fueled by excess savings has been propping up the US econom...
Commodities As A Late-Cycle Investment According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, commodity prices typically rally toward the end of ...
Oil Prices Responding To Subdued Demand Conditions Brent prices have fallen 6% so far in July, reversing their June gains. Interestingly, these losses are occurring d...
What’s Ailing ASEAN Markets? The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the...
China’s Surprise Rate Cut Unlikely To Move the Needle The PBoC lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70% on Monday. The 5-year and 1-year loan prime rates decli...
An Iced Beveridge? BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remained tactically bullish on stocks for most of 2023, but shifted to...
What To Do About Small Caps The S&P 600 and Russell 2000 have outperformed the S&P 500 by close to 10% since July 9. Small caps typically ou...
UK Services Inflation Still Too High For BoE's Comfort UK’s CPI growth stands right on the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. However, services inflation remains sticky, growi...
Consumer Credit Increases The Most In Three Months Total consumer credit rose by USD 11.4 billion in May (to USD 5,065 billion outstanding) from a slightly upwardly revise...
