Macro Investment Insights & Market Commentary

Upcoming Webcast

Please join Head of GeoMacro, Matt Gertken along with GeoMacro Strategists Jesse Kuri and Yushu Ma for a Webcast, Midterm Election: The BCA Forecast.

Wednesday, October 14
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Topics to be discussed:

Will Democrats win the Senate or not? Yes. What happens if they fall short? Nothing!
How will markets react to different midterm scenarios? A Democratic victory raises odds of a Blue sweep in 2028, and tax hikes in 2029!
Will the US escalate the war with Iran after the midterm? Yes, but only marginally. Constraints still apply.
Will President Trump "go abroad" after Congress gets divided? Yes, but mostly to negotiate CEASEFIRES.
Will Trump slap tariffs on the world in 2027? Yes, though he cannot jeopardize the business cycle. So ... beware retaliation!
What are the midterm implications for the 2028 election and US policy going forward? How will global policies and markets respond?

Register

Report

Dispatches From The Future: World War E

In 2026, against the backdrop of plunging birth rates around the world, investors were focused on AI bottlenecks. Little did they know that the biggest bottleneck to artificial intelligence was, ironically, human intelligence. Progress in overcoming this bottleneck set geopolitics ablaze and ushered...

Demographics Technological Advances

6 hours ago

Report

FICC Q4 Strategy Outlook: Climbing The Wall Of Worry

Politics, wars, a global tightening cycle, doubts over AI capex: the wall of worry keeps rising. But the spark that would topple risk assets is missing. Our Q4 FICC outlook explains why to stay long risk, and where the danger lies....

Fixed Income Currencies

11 hours ago

Report

The Bond Riot, The AI Peak, And The EM Mirage

US bonds will likely continue selling off until tighter financial conditions – most plausibly a double-digit decline in the S&P 500 – cool nominal growth. Higher discount rates will threaten US equity valuations before earnings weaken. AI stocks will peak well ahead of AI capex. Remain downbeat ...

Inflation/Deflation Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

14 hours ago

Report

Quarterly TAA: Picking Up $20 Bills In Front Of The Steamroller

Higher rates have changed the opportunity set. Overweight High-Yield Credit, both within asset allocation and versus Private Credit. Investors are no longer picking up pennies in front of a steamroller....

Fixed Income

17 hours ago

Report

MacroQuant Model Update: A Constellation Of R-Stars

MacroQuant recommends an underweight to equities and bonds, counterbalanced by a significant overweight to cash. The model is very bullish on the US dollar, slightly negative on gold and copper, and positive on oil....

BCA Indicators/Model Asset Allocation

30 Sep 2026

Report

PCE Revisions Change The Picture We Have Of US Inflation

Core US inflation is still running above target. But this morning’s data revisions reveal that the gap is not nearly as large as it appeared yesterday. ...

US Inflation/Deflation

30 Sep 2026

Webcast Replay

Macro Intelligence for AI Workflows

This Webcast introduced BCA Intelligence, our new platform for bringing BCA’s current insight and historical investment thinking into the AI assistants, analytics platforms, and internal systems your team uses.

We discussed:

What BCA Intelligence is, and how it works
Why searchable, citation-backed macro insight matters
How it can support existing research and investment workflows
Practical use cases that show BCA Intelligence in action

Speakers:

Kurt Viehl
Chief Revenue Officer

Shannon Lal
Chief Technology Officer

Mathieu Savary
Head of Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies

Katia Shtrevensky
Strategist, Geopolitics

Watch Now

Report

The Dollar's Last Hurrah: Upgrading Our DXY Target To 105

Global capex is driving the strongest industrial cycle since 2021. The US is best positioned to capture the gains and to weather near-term risks, supporting widening real-rate differentials and favoring continued upside in the dollar in the coming months....

US Dollar Monetary Policy

29 Sep 2026

Report

The Regulatory Pendulum Is Swinging – America Is Becoming Europe

Most investors would argue that Europe overregulates relative to the US. However, that was not always the case. Political Scientist David Vogel of University of California, Berkeley, posited that the two economies shifted models in the 1990s. Prior to that decade, the US led health, safety, and envi...

28 Sep 2026