Commodity Markets & Energy Outlook
Connect supply, demand, geopolitics, inflation, and the macro cycle to opportunities and risks across commodity and energy markets.
Why There’s A Floor Under Brent
Middle Eastern crude exports are back at pre-war levels, yet Brent remains above $100/bbl. We explain why more barrels haven’t meant lower prices, and why policymakers have no clean fix. Even if Putin…
FICC Q4 Strategy Outlook: Climbing The Wall Of Worry
Politics, wars, a global tightening cycle, doubts over AI capex: the wall of worry keeps rising. But the spark that would topple risk assets is missing. Our Q4 FICC outlook explains why to stay long r…
US Diesel Export Ban: A Short-Term Fix With Global Fallout
Record diesel prices and mounting political pressure make some form of US export restriction likely. But it wouldn't be a clean solution. We reveal why relief would be fleeting, who would pay the pric…
Crude: Peak Strain, For Now
Recent oil market developments expose the limits of the adjustment mechanisms that have cushioned the global market since the Hormuz closure began. Fortunately, Hormuz dark transits have become the do…
Beware Copper’s Tariff Risk
Thursday's sharp pullback in the COMEX copper price from an all-time high underscores a key risk to the red metal's resilience. An eventual resolution of US copper tariff uncertainty would likely trig…
“The Biggest Oil Deal In World History” Is A Paper Tiger
President Trump referred to the US-Venezuela agreement as the “biggest oil deal in world history.” However, oil production growth constraints limit its near-term impact on global crude markets. Instea…
