Commodity Markets & Energy Outlook
Connect supply, demand, geopolitics, inflation, and the macro cycle to opportunities and risks across commodity and energy markets.
Crude: Peak Strain, For Now
Recent oil market developments expose the limits of the adjustment mechanisms that have cushioned the global market since the Hormuz closure began. Fortunately, Hormuz dark transits have become the do…
Beware Copper’s Tariff Risk
Thursday's sharp pullback in the COMEX copper price from an all-time high underscores a key risk to the red metal's resilience. An eventual resolution of US copper tariff uncertainty would likely trig…
“The Biggest Oil Deal In World History” Is A Paper Tiger
President Trump referred to the US-Venezuela agreement as the “biggest oil deal in world history.” However, oil production growth constraints limit its near-term impact on global crude markets. Instea…
Why The Crack Spread's Next Move Is Down
The wide crack spread reflects a bifurcated oil market. The severity of the crude oil disruption has recently softened, while the US-Iran and Ukraine-Russia conflicts have created a perfect storm for…
Petrochemicals: A Chinese Pivot To Coal
The Hormuz crisis has exposed a structural vulnerability in China's petrochemical value chain. Going forward, Beijing will look to build greater supply security by scaling up coal-to-olefins capacity…
FICC Third Quarter Strategy Outlook: Goldilocks
Goldilocks, with fault lines underneath. Our first joint FICC outlook lays out where growth, inflation, and policy are headed this quarter and where the calm could crack.
