Global Macro & Investment Outlook
See how the global macro regime is shifting and what it means for markets, risk, and portfolio positioning.
Central Bank Monitor Update: The Limits Of The New Tightening Cycle
Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricin…
Chief Economist’s View: Will Worries About AI Doom End the AI Boom?
Concerns by the major AI companies that they are locked into a financially unsustainable arms race for AI dominance are likely playing as much a role in their newfound “go slow” approach as concerns o…
Bessent Can't Have It All
Scott Bessent’s attempts to suppress yields while financing large twin deficits risk crashing foreign inflows, the dollar, US bonds, and equities. Without a major equity selloff or large-scale commerc…
A Unified Framework For Forecasting Bond Yields
We propose a unified framework for predicting the direction of short-term interest rates and long-term bond yields that brings together three approaches: 1) the saving-investment approach; 2) the Tayl…
What We Got Right And What We Got Wrong
We review the track record of our broader investment strategy and individual calls. We also use this opportunity to close several positions that have become stale.
Will Bessenomics Avert A Stock-to-Bond Collision?
If bond yields rise due to widening bond term premiums or escalating inflation expectations, Bessenomics is unlikely to avert a stock-bond collision. Buy back gold mining stocks.
