Latest from BCA Research

We are downgrading Brazilian equities from neutral to underweight and maintaining our underweights in Brazil's domestic bonds and sovereign credit within their respective EM portfolios. Go long Brazilian 5-year CDS as a short-term trade.

Special Report

In this report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s Emeritus Chief Economist, reflects on the rise in US government debt, dollar strength, and profit margin expansion that has occurred over the past 25 years. He argues that these trends are unsustainable and are bound to reverse within the next few years.

In this report, we explore opportunities in goldminer equities, AI infrastructure monetization, and Japan's tactical outperformance window.

Left-wing populism will likely prevail within the Democratic Party and inspire large tax hikes in 2029. But the US does not face a socialist takeover.

July’s CPI reading was low enough to keep the Fed on hold for now, but near-term upside inflation risks remain.

We remain tactically bullish due to the combination of geopolitical risks in the Middle East easing and the ramping up of the AI boom. In this month’s chartpack, we articulate the reasoning behind both sanguine views.

The fragile balance in the Ukraine war has broken – the conflict can escalate and take investors who are focused on Iran by surprise.

AI demand remains strong, but the capex boom is creating a growing divide within Tech. Hyperscalers combine superior margins, capital efficiency and financing capacity with multiple paths to monetize AI investment. Neoclouds rely more heavily on leverage and scarcity economics, potentially making them more vulnerable should capacity expand and compute pricing normalize.

Special Report

Outside semiconductor stocks, EM/China profitability has been well below both their US peers and the levels that prevailed during the EM structural bull market in the 2000s. Over a 3- to 5-year horizon, EM/China relative equity performance versus global will be range-bound.