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AI

The Democratic midterm sweep complicates the US foreign policy outlook and gives global equities a tactical lift as energy prices moderate. Democrats flipped deep-red states like Kansas, Iowa, South Carolina and Texas, and are on track for 56 Senate seats if…

October saw a 0.9% decline in the S&P 500, dragged lower by Communication Services (-15.1%) and Information Technology (-6.8%). All other sectors delivered positive returns, led by traditional defensives – Health Care (+9.9%), Utilities (+10.2%), Consumer Staples (+11.6%) – and Energy (+14.0%). Although our overweight Tech call surrendered some performance during the month, IT has still gained 37% since the view was initiated on March 30, outpacing the S&P 500’s 20% advance.

Today's report examines several of the most interesting ideas we've heard over two weeks of meetings and calls with investors.

By a slim margin, our clients see weak demand as the most likely trigger were AI adoption to slow. In last week's poll, we asked our clients what is most likely to slow AI adoption from here? The largest share of clients (37%) chose lack of real demand,…
Bank Credit Analyst

Marking the debut of Chief Technology and Innovation Strategist Matt Dyson, this month’s Global Market Outlook examines Matt’s views on the presence and durability of moats for companies at various segments of the AI chain.

AI hype is rising faster than revenue, and maintaining positive sentiment through 2027 will require either rising revenues, or a new AI innovation to sustain the hype cycle, such as capable personal assistants or physical AI. Our Chart of the Week comes from…

Since ChatGPT’s launch in late 2022, multiple waves of AI innovation have driven markets and dominated the conversation across the investment community. Drawing on an extensive set of questions from BCA clients and strategists, our new report tackles the uncertainties that remain: What beyond customer demand drives token consumption? Will open-weight models eventually dominate? And, perhaps most importantly, how worried should we be about AI-induced extinction?

East Asian export growth is being driven by prices rather than volumes. South Korea’s first 20-day export growth surged to 105% y/y in October. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s new export orders ticked down last month, but remained very strong (from 72% y/y in August to…
Copper prices are being lifted by strong AI hardware stocks, despite weak Chinese industrial activity. Semiconductor stocks are up around 70% over the past year, while Chinese industrials are down around 15%. Copper sits between the two, having gained about…
This week’s selloff in neocloud providers is not yet a major warning sign for tech stocks overall. CoreWeave, a US neocloud provider, sold off aggressively on Wednesday, declining over 15% on the day. The stock recovered somewhat on Thursday, as did our…