The first week of January is always the most difficult for investment strategists. The annual outlook is usually penned in early December. Ours went to your inbox on December 2, perhaps too early to get a read on the next 12 (really 13!)…

Special Report

In Section II, Jonathan updates the BCA Artificial Intelligence Productivity Checklist and concludes that the evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom is not convincing.

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30…

Europe is not left out of the AI race. Despite lagging US and China in LLMs and AI capex, Europe is quietly making progress where it matters, including industrial adoption. European capitals and the EU seem committed to not let that…

The odds have risen that we have reached a “Metaverse Moment” – a situation where investors punish AI companies for increasing capex. This warrants greater caution towards AI stocks specifically, and the broader S&P 500 more…

Disparities between households and between companies’ earnings and equity performance are widening, but the overall status quo remains in place. We reiterate our neutral asset class recommendations while watching for early signs of…

Special Report

We examine past capex booms which turned into busts. Our analysis suggests that AI is following the same script as those ill-fated booms. 

Special Report

As hyperscalers expand global data center capacity, they are igniting a powerful industrial cycle. Capital Goods and Materials companies supplying turbines, grid components, cooling systems, and advanced connectivity materials for…

In the absence of official government data, investors are turning to alternative sources to gauge the direction of the US economy. Our analysis of this data suggests that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace over…

Détente between China and the US is a big deal. Economic data continues to give the Fed reasons to cut. What is there to be worried about? Very little. But we chew on some bearish thoughts as we start thinking about 2026.