Foreign Exchange & Currency Outlook
Translate macro divergence, policy shifts, and valuation into actionable views across foreign exchange and global currencies.
Sweden And Norway: A Reversal Of Fortunes
The war in Iran and the energy shock are driving a reversal of Nordic fortunes: Sweden’s recovery is faltering just as Norway receives a welcome energy windfall. Favor Norwegian over Swedish equities…
JPY Intervention: US Joins The Trade
MoF and the US Treasury stepped in together to defend the yen, but even joint intervention cannot reset the fundamentals still weighing on the currency. Washington's pursuit of its own incentives, mea…
The Yen Collapse: All About Inflation, Not Fiscal Stress
Yen weakness and rising JGB yields aren't a fiscal crisis; they're a market pricing an overheating economy and a BoJ falling behind the inflation curve. We lay out why the endgame is near, and what to…
Will Europe Avoid A Recession? Two Perspectives
Europe faces a difficult macro backdrop, but whether it slips into recession remains finely balanced. We present two perspectives before translating them into investment implications.
FICC Third Quarter Strategy Outlook: Goldilocks
Goldilocks, with fault lines underneath. Our first joint FICC outlook lays out where growth, inflation, and policy are headed this quarter and where the calm could crack.
Beyond The Dollar: The Rise Of The “Other” FX Reserves
The dollar is not being replaced by a single rival, it is being diluted by a rising cast of “other” reserve currencies. This report identifies the hidden winners of reserve diversification and why the…
