Our EM strategists view Korea’s equity tantrum as a warning for global risk assets and recommend taking profits and downgrading Korean stocks. Korea has become the most extreme expression of the global equity rally, driven by semiconductor momentum, high-beta exposure, and rampant retail speculation...
Our US Equity strategists are raising their 2026 S&P 500 target to 8100 from 7700. The increase is driven by a higher EPS forecast as the economy re-accelerates and earnings broaden beyond a narrow set of hyperscalers. The upgrade reflects a stronger-than-expected first quarter and an improving econ...
Our Geopolitical strategists see the DRC Ebola outbreak as a low-probability but high-consequence supply-chain risk. The country holds a critical position in global copper and, especially, cobalt production. Our colleagues expect the outbreak to stay contained and not morph into a global pandemic, b...
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to make Fed-watching great again. The Warsh Fed will speak less and guide less. There is, however, an important nuance to the communication changes so far. While explicit guidance was removed, some implicit guidance remains, as inflation was prioritized over employmen...
The USD has moved sideways this year, but its behavior has become more defensive since the Iran war began. After fears of a USD “exodus” last year, the dollar has instead acted as a safe-haven during the Iran war. The DXY’s correlation with implied volatility has also increased since the start of th...
Mixed labor and inflation data should create a window for the Warsh Fed to keep rates on hold. We recently highlighted an important nuance to the communication changes so far: explicit guidance is removed, yet implicit guidance remains. The Warsh Fed will also aim to take more guidance from markets....
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists laid out a framework for evaluating private equity investments. While fund vehicles often last more than ten years, the assets they contain are held for much shorter periods; and it is those shorter periods that drive returns. Closed-end funds can run a...
Our Commodity strategists expect oil prices to move higher as de-escalation hopes fade and Strait of Hormuz supply risks reassert themselves. Recent volatility reflect headline-driven uncertainty, with markets swinging between prospects of an imminent Strait reopening and fears of ceasefire breakdow...
Our Global Investment strategists argue that AI could be as transformative as the Agricultural or Industrial Revolutions, but carries existential medium- to long-term risks. Both prior revolutions lifted GDP growth more than 30-fold versus the preceding epoch, and AI may prove similarly powerful. Th...
Our DM ex-US strategists make the case for the Eurobond as a structural necessity. The ECB has expanded EUREP (its global euro liquidity facility) to lay the groundwork for currency internationalization, but liquidity infrastructure without a deep pool of risk-free collateral achieves little. Euro-d...
