Insights

Please join BCA Chief Economist Peter Berezin, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of GeoMacro, Marko Papic, and Chief Europe Strategist, Jeremie Peloso, for a Webcast: The Big Debate on Europe: Boom or Doom?

Monday, November 16
10:30 AM EST | 3:30 PM GMT | 4:30 PM CET

Peter, Marko, and Jeremie will discuss/debate:

• Is Europe finally changing?
• Cheap, or cheap for a reason?
• Can investment overcome demographics and weak productivity?
• Are the equity themes big enough to move the market?
• Does political pressure produce reform or paralysis?
• Can European stocks thrive even if Europe struggles?

With US debt exceeding 120% of GDP and interest costs among the highest in the developed world, can investors still rely on Treasurys to hedge the next bear market?

In this webcast, Juan and Ryan answered this question and others such as:

• Who controls the long end of the curve in a downturn: the central bank or the bond vigilantes?
• What role do the dollar and inflation play?
• What can the central bank do if the Fed cuts rates and the long end does not fall?

Please join Head of GeoMacro, Matt Gertken along with GeoMacro Strategist Jesse Kuri for a Webcast, Midterm Election: The BCA Forecast.

Topics discussed:

• Will Democrats win the Senate or not? Yes. What happens if they fall short? Nothing!
• How will markets react to different midterm scenarios? A Democratic victory raises odds of a Blue sweep in 2028, and tax hikes in 2029!
• Will the US escalate the war with Iran after the midterm? Yes, but only marginally. Constraints still apply.
• Will President Trump "go abroad" after Congress gets divided? Yes, but mostly to negotiate CEASEFIRES.
• Will Trump slap tariffs on the world in 2027? Yes, though he cannot jeopardize the business cycle. So ... beware retaliation!
• What are the midterm implications for the 2028 election and US policy going forward? How will global policies and markets respond?

This Webcast introduced BCA Intelligence, our new platform for bringing BCA’s current insight and historical investment thinking into the AI assistants, analytics platforms, and internal systems your team uses.

We discussed:

• What BCA Intelligence is, and how it works
• Why searchable, citation-backed macro insight matters
• How it can support existing research and investment workflows
• Practical use cases that show BCA Intelligence in action

Speakers:

Kurt Viehl
Chief Revenue Officer

Shannon Lal
Chief Technology Officer

Mathieu Savary
Head of Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies

Katia Shtrevensky
Strategist, Geopolitics

In this Webcast, Peter, Robert and Ryan discussed

• Drivers of the recent bond selloff and whether it presents a buying opportunity for fixed income investors 
• Topical issues pertaining to bonds, including: 
  • What to expect from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed
  • The odds of a capex bust
  • The impact of AI on interest rates
  • The risk of a fiscal crisis in the US and elsewhere

Mathieu Savary, Matt Gertken, and Roukaya Ibrahim discussed:

• Markets have seen a series of supply shocks in recent years, from Covid to Ukraine to tariffs to the Iran war.
• How will these shocks evolve going forward? Should investors care more about new tariffs or the Strait of Hormuz?
• How will El Nino impact agricultural commodities and which crops are most exposed?
• How have recent shocks affected commodity prices, inflation, and inflation expectations?
• How will policy makers respond to these shocks? What are the monetary, fiscal, trade, and foreign policy implications?
• How will global financial markets respond? Where are the tactical and cyclical opportunities to be found?

Noah Holds Barred Webcast: Episode 4 (Special Edition): Defense Wins Championships: Aerospace & Defense In A Multipolar World

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist, Matt Gertken, Head of GeoMacro

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, Senior Vice President, Sales

Thursday, August 27
10:30 AM-11:00 AM EDT | 3:30 PM-4:00 PM BST | 4:30 PM-5:00 PM CEST

Key topics discussed:

• The increasing frequency of global conflicts that fail to resolve into durable ceasefires
• Near-term risk to the S&P 500 from an intensification of the Ukraine war
• Risk of a post-midterm re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict
• Trump-Xi thaw and US-China security competition as drivers of global military spending
• The impact of the spending outlook on aerospace and defense stocks
• Do stock prices reflect the impact of a multipolar world?
• Potential ways to hedge ongoing geopolitical tensions

Arthur discussed:

• Global currency markets are on the edge: the US dollar will become pro-cyclical, and the euro will become counter-cyclical.
• This regime shift would upend financial market correlations, and most investment portfolios are not positioned for it.
• The main driver of currency markets will change from interest rates to the balance of payments.
• The dollar’s dependence on net foreign flows into US equities is far greater today than ever.
• A low bar for US dollar depreciation: No net capital outflows necessary — just smaller inflows.
• A weaker US dollar will be deflationary, not reflationary, for the rest of the world.
• EM stocks will not rally in absolute terms despite a weak US dollar.
• Which asset classes and regions will perform the best during this US dollar devaluation?

In this Webcast, Juan and Brian introduced the Portfolio Construction platform and showed how it brought Public and Private Markets together in a unified framework. They also discussed the key allocation views behind why investors:

• Should Overweight Private Equity
• Should rotate out of momentum stocks into quality and hyperscalers
• Should downgrade Late-Stage Venture Capital

Moreover, they reviewed their outlook on the macro economy, fixed income, rates, real estate, infrastructure and liquid alternatives.

Please join Strategists, Mathieu Savary, with Ryan Swift, Roukaya Ibrahim, Robert Timper, and Artem Sakhbiev, for the BCA's Q3 FICC (Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies) Outlook Webcast.

Tuesday, July 14
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Where they will discuss our take on the macro forces driving global fixed income, currencies, and commodities into year-end.

Topics to be discussed:

• US rates under a Warsh-led Fed,
• Where G10 central banks diverge from the Fed,
• The best opportunities we see across global bond markets,
• The dollar's path through year-end, and which currencies are set to win or lose most,
• Whether the US-Iran de-escalation holds, and the read-through for oil and the broader commodity complex.