Insights

BCA Chief Strategists, Mathieu Savary, Roukaya Ibrahim, and Noah Weisberger looked at the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for global financial markets.

Topics discussed:

• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and energy markets are tightening again. Is the shock being underpriced?
• What would a sustained disruption mean for the global growth–inflation trade-off? Is stagflation risk creeping back?
• Within commodities, where is the real asymmetry now? What’s crowded, and what still offers upside?
• Can strategic reserve releases truly cap the rally, or do they just delay the adjustment?
• Equities have remained resilient. Are markets looking through the shock, or misreading it?
• Where is the tipping point: how much further can oil rise before equities reprice meaningfully?
• If crude continues higher, which sectors and factors offer the most convex exposure, not just beta?
• If flows normalize and oil rolls over, where does leadership rotate, and how quickly?

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 2

Noah and Jason discussed:

• What earnings, revisions and expectations are telling us now
• The latest read on Tech revenues, capex, and demand for AI
• Why we are long Software
• The outlook for margins: Macro headwinds vs. AI
• Key feedback and pushback from 32 client meetings & 34 Lunch and Dinner attendees:
  • The impact of AI IPOs, consumer spending trends, Utilities underweight

Macro headlines may have shifted attention away from Private Markets, but the underlying risks remain. We revisit the Private Credit-Software cracks we flagged early and explain why, despite the noise, the structural story is just getting started.

• How did we get here?
• Is Software making or breaking Private Credit's diversification case?
• Systemic risk or a normal credit cycle?
• How are our 2024 calls on Distressed versus Buyouts playing out?
• Where are the most overlooked opportunities across Private (and Public) Markets right now? 

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 1

Noah and Jason discussed:

• The foundations of our constructive outlook and 7700 year-end S&P 500 target
• The capex outlook and its implications
• Do valuations represent a meaningful constraint?
• Tensions and opportunities between market pricing and the state of the cycle
• What a US recession could mean for equities
• Middle East tensions: potential paths to resolution and market implications
• Sector positioning for 2026