Insights

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Episode 1

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, SVP, Sales

Tuesday, March 31 at 10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Noah and Jason will discuss:

• The foundations of our constructive outlook and 7700 year-end S&P 500 target
• The capex outlook and its implications
• Do valuations represent a meaningful constraint?
• Tensions and opportunities between market pricing and the state of the cycle
• What a US recession could mean for equities
• Middle East tensions: potential paths to resolution and market implications
• Sector positioning for 2026

At BCA, we believe that robust internal debate leads to sharper investment insights. We don’t expect our strategists to agree - but we do expect them to challenge each other rigorously.

To that end, we’re launching a new webcast series: The BCA Debate - a head-to-head discussion between BCA strategists with differing perspectives on key investment calls.

Debate #1: The Outlook For Global Equities
Peter Berezin vs Juan Correa

Juan Correa, Chief Global Asset Allocation (GAA) Strategist, is overweight equities on a 12-month horizon because:

• The cycle is reaccelerating, with leading indicators pointing to improving employment, credit, and capex.
• Inflation is unlikely to be a constraint for much of 2026; monetary policy should be supportive this year.
• He is overweight value, ex-US equities, and cyclical sectors. He expects US tech to deliver mediocre returns in 2026, but believes fears of an AI bubble are overstated.

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Investment Strategist, is more cautious; neutral on a 3-month horizon and slightly underweight on a 12-month horizon. He will discuss:

• His base-case path for equities in 2026, including a potential “Great Rotation” from tech to non-tech, growth to value, and US to non-US.
• Why he thinks an AI bust could tip the broader economy into recession.
• The trades he has implemented to express these themes.

Please join BCA Research Chief Strategist of the Counterpoint service, Dhaval Joshi for a Webcast on Thursday, January 29 at 10:30 EST | 15:30 GMT | 16:30 CET in which he will discuss three contrarian takes for 2026:

1. Tech stocks are more likely to follow the benign unwind of 2021 than the malign unwind of 2000.
2. The risk of US economic overheating is greatly underestimated.
3. Gold and bitcoin are perfect soulmates for each other.

Dhaval will also go through the major asset allocation signals that his proprietary complexity indicators are giving right now.

Tariffs, geopolitics, inflation… there are plenty of reasons to worry that the US economy and markets are going down the wrong path. Marko Papic, BCA’s Chief Strategist of the GeoMacro Strategy argues that all of this misses the Big Picture: the US economy and assets have been pump-primed by an orgy of fiscal profligacy since 2017. And that fiscal dominance – the most important global macro trend of this decade – is coming to an end. Silently and largely in the background of most dominant narratives capturing the attention of clients.

While it may seem bearish at first, Marko has been the only BCA Strategist that has remained in the bullish camp throughout 2025. Why? Because a slowdown in fiscal policy is the only hope that the US has to avoid a bond market riot, see yields settle down, and allow for a transition from cash-fueled cycle to evolve into a leverage-driven one. An important caveat here is that President Trump must land the plane on his various trade wars, which Marko expects him to do.
From a global asset allocation perspective, however, the era of US asset outperformance is over. This is as much a geopolitical shift as it is a macro one.

Marko will focus on his differentiated views, including that:

• A “melt-up” in risk assets is underway and politics has a lot to do with it.
• Investors should remember President Trump’s Seven Steps of Maximum Pressure and trade accordingly.
• President Trump will be a boon for both globalization and world peace…
• …But will, ironically, not be positive – from a relative perspective – for US assets.
• Europe – and other non-US assets – are likely to benefit from the rotation.