Insights

In this Webcast, Ryan will run through the most important US economic debates of the moment with a focus on the implications for Federal Reserve policy and US bond yields. 

Those debates are:

• Is slow employment growth driven predominantly by supply or demand?
• How significant an effect is AI adoption having on unemployment?
• What is underlying US inflation, abstracting from the impact of tariffs?
• Does the “K-shaped recovery” adequately explain the divergence between strong consumer spending and weak employment growth? 

After being an optimist on stocks and the global economy in 2022 and 2023, Peter turned defensive last year. That decision was a flop. Peter will discuss where he went wrong and what his outlook is now. His presentation will focus on:

• The odds of a soft landing over the next 12 months (30% chance in his view), recession (50% chance), and overheating (20% chance).
• The outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios.
• Why investors misunderstand the impact of AI on corporate profits and what signals to look for to determine when the AI boom will turn to bust.
• Whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend and whether the yen will ever strengthen again.
• Why gold may still be in the middle innings of a bull market.
• The latest signals from the MacroQuant model, which distills hundreds of leading indicators to predict the direction of stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.