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Equities

As a short-term (0-3 months) trade, go long an equal-weighted basket of Chinese Investable and A-shares / short the KOSPI. This is a bet on mean reversion. We do not recommend that medium- and long-term investors implement this strategy.

Our latest BCA debate showed that both the equity bulls and bears may be right on different time horizons, but the burden of proof for a bearish six-month view remains high. The debate pitted the bulls, Juan Correa and Noah Weisberger, against the bears,…
Our China strategists remain overweight onshore A-shares over offshore Chinese equities, a call the K-shaped recovery in industrial profits reinforces. A-shares offer greater exposure to the advanced-manufacturing complex, which should keep outperforming,…
Special Report

The Goldilocks environment for US profit margins should start to sour next year. Contrary to conventional wisdom, AI could end up eroding margins for both producers and consumers of artificial intelligence.

Europe is far less insulated from the AI trade than sector weights suggest. The Stoxx 600 has hit record highs on the back of earnings upgrades, improving macro data, and a rotation into laggards like healthcare, staples, financials, and domestic…

S&P 500 performance rotated in June, but fundamental growth remains strong across sectors, with earnings and revenue growth extending well beyond the largest mega-cap companies.

Our US Equity strategists argue the more important question for the S&P 500 is not how many stocks drive the market, but how many factors drive stocks. Market concentration, though at multi-decade highs, is a weak signal for forward returns and, if…

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed its benchmark through June, returning -0.50%, while its SPY benchmark returned -1.37%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was weaker than the benchmark, with USHQ underperforming by approx. 205bps.

MacroQuant recommends underweighting equities and adopting a benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios. The model is very positive on the US dollar, bearish on gold, neutral on copper, and bullish on oil.

The S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated. We know that. But the critical question is not how many stocks are driving the market; it is how many factors are driving stocks. We define an AI risk factor to test whether AI has become the dominant common exposure throughout much of the factor zoo.