Macro Investment Insights & Market Commentary

Upcoming Webcast

Will US Treasurys Hedge You in the Next Recession?

Please join BCA Chief Strategists Juan Correa, Ryan Swift, and Robert Timper for a Webcast: Will US Treasurys Hedge You in the Next Recession?

Thursday, October 29
10:30 EDT | 2:30 GMT | 3:30 CET

With US debt exceeding 120% of GDP and interest costs among the highest in the developed world, can investors still rely on Treasurys to hedge the next bear market?

In this webcast, we will answer this question and others such as:

Who controls the long end of the curve in a downturn: the central bank or the bond vigilantes?
What role do the dollar and inflation play?
What can the central bank do if the Fed cuts rates and the long end does not fall?

Register

Report

EM Domestic Bonds: Turbulence Before An Opportunity

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Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys Monetary

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Profitability Series: The Blind Spot Of Macro Investing

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Chief Economist’s View: Collateral Damage

AI capex is supporting the global economy but also generating collateral damage for rate-sensitive sectors such as housing, as well as highly indebted governments. Maintain a benchmark allocation to equities for now and look to get more defensive next year....

AI Bonds

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Will US Treasurys Hedge You In The Next Recession? Lessons From High-Debt Countries

History suggests central bank policy determines how bonds behave in recessions, even for high-debt countries. The Fed should be able to cut into a slowdown, making Treasurys an effective equity hedge… for USD-based investors. Foreign investors will see currency depreciation erase their gains....

Fixed Income Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

15 Oct 2026

Report

US Inflation Chartpack: Too Soon To Look For Peak Bond Yields

US inflation came in hot for the second consecutive month in September, though probably not hot enough for the Fed to move its next rate hike up to the October meeting....

US Fixed Income

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October Surprise – More War

Iran is effectively trying to create an “October surprise,” an adage that refers to a pre-election crisis that alters the trajectory of polling and the eventual outcome. It is likely to be successful, with oil prices likely to face upward momentum from here. The intention would be to ensure that oil...

Iran Oil

14 Oct 2026

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Private Markets Meet Higher Rates: Don’t Bank On 2000 Risk Premiums

With capital locked up for years, scenario analysis is especially valuable for Private Market investors. We provide a framework for mapping returns on new investments if the US 10-year yield hits 6.5%, a level last seen in 2000. Just do not expect the risk premiums of that era....

Private Markets Private Real Estate

14 Oct 2026

Report

Argentina: All Destruction, No Creation – Take Profits

If President Milei does not ease policy immediately to contain the disinflationary squeeze, he is likely to lose next year's election. This means neoliberal structural reforms will suffer a setback in subsequent years. Close long positions in Argentine assets....

Argentina Domestic Politics

14 Oct 2026