Insights

Scott Bessent’s attempts to suppress yields while financing large twin deficits risk crashing foreign inflows, the dollar, US bonds, and equities. Without a major equity selloff or large-scale commercial bank purchases of Treasurys, the bond selloff will persist – producing a major equity drawdown a...

We remain constructive on US equities, but higher yields, slower EPS growth and heavy IPO issuance remain significant risks to valuations, leaving the path to our year-end target increasingly dependent on earnings. Tactically, there has already been a significant, but benign, compression in multiple...

August’s 0.3% increase in core CPI breaks inflation’s 3-month downtrend and is likely hot enough for the Fed to hike rates when it meets next week....

The ECB is winning, and almost nobody's pricing it in. A flatter Phillips curve, a shrinking term premium, a euro built to shrug off France, credibility is the trade....

Thursday's sharp pullback in the COMEX copper price from an all-time high underscores a key risk to the red metal's resilience. An eventual resolution of US copper tariff uncertainty would likely trigger a price relapse. That drawdown, however, would offer an attractive opportunity to increase struc...

Foreign exchange markets are shaped by a wide range of macro influences. The sheer breadth of relevant information makes systematically assessing where a currency stands at any point in time a challenging analytical task. We introduce an FX scorecard that condenses the full range of data into nine t...

It is that time of year again for our annual Private Equity & Sports report. This year, we examine private capital's entry into college sports. Athletic departments generate significant revenue, but margins are under pressure. Colleges still hold untapped assets that private partners will help m...

President Trump is raising tariffs again, now through 2027 – and more countries will retaliate this time. While markets can climb over “Liberation Day 2.0,” investors should be wary of today's aggressive policies engendering drastic policy change in 2028....

After two weeks on the road talking to investors across ANZ and India, this report addresses the questions that came up most: from investment grade issuance concerns to the selloff at the long end, and what's really driving JGBs, the yen, and the outlook for Australian and New Zealand rates....