China
Our China strategists argue it is too soon to turn positive on Chinese developers’ equities. After a sharp five-year correction, China’s top-tier housing market will likely bottom out next year. But our colleagues expect the rest of the country to keep…
After a sharp five-year correction, China's top-tier housing markets will likely bottom out late next year. The rest of the country, however, will keep struggling with oversupply.
The euro area economic surprise index has declined significantly over the past month. This contrasts with China, where it has improved meaningfully. In the US, the surprise index was mostly unchanged in October but remained solidly in net positive territory.…
Copper prices are being lifted by strong AI hardware stocks, despite weak Chinese industrial activity. Semiconductor stocks are up around 70% over the past year, while Chinese industrials are down around 15%. Copper sits between the two, having gained about…
China's domestic demand remains weak, despite positive Q3 data surprises. China’s Q3 GDP modestly beat expectations, accelerating from 0.9% to 1.2% q/q (4.3% to 4.5% y/y). September industrial production growth picked up, and retail sales accelerated from…
China’s September inflation, trade, and credit data do not point to an improving domestic economy. Producer price inflation accelerated in September, but energy drove most of the increase. Consumer price inflation was unchanged, suggesting that producers…
China's fuel exports have rebounded, but further supply from the world's largest refiner is unlikely to meaningfully ease tightness in global product markets. Fuel exports grew 13% year over year in August after Beijing relaxed its curbs, leaving year-to-date…
China's policy stance is gradually becoming more supportive of households, but a decisive reflationary pivot has yet to materialize. In the meantime, we favor large state-owned banks and onshore utilities as defensive plays.
The Trump-Xi summit does not imply concrete benefits to US-China trade. Strategic tensions persist, forcing China to increase fiscal stimulus in 2027.
China's investment downshift is structural, and Beijing will have to respond to it by turning toward household demand. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jing Sima, Chief China Strategist. China's capital stock-to-GDP ratio now sits above most developed and…