Euro

The ECB is winning, and almost nobody's pricing it in. A flatter Phillips curve, a shrinking term premium, a euro built to shrug off France, credibility is the trade.

Foreign exchange markets are shaped by a wide range of macro influences. The sheer breadth of relevant information makes systematically assessing where a currency stands at any point in time a challenging analytical task. We introduce an FX scorecard that condenses the full range of data into nine thematic scores, providing a clear visual snapshot of a currency's position and how it's evolving.

In Romania, large fiscal and current account deficits, high inflation, negative real rates, an overvalued exchange rate, and deteriorating growth point to budding currency devaluation. Investors should short the Romanian currency versus the euro and underweight Romanian local bonds, equities, and sovereign credit.

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

The ECB stood pat today, yet the policy path remains fraught with uncertainty as domestic resilience collides with global headwinds. This dichotomy continues to hold important implications for European assets over the coming months. 

A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.