Armen Hamazaspyan
Research Analyst
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Indian Inflation Remains Too High
Indian headline CPI stayed around 4.4% in July, keeping inflation above the 4% target but still within the RBI’s tolerance band. Food and fuel prices continue to account for much of the inflationary pressure, though core inflation also remains elevated. Given…
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Brazil’s Inflation Problem Isn’t Solved
Brazil’s central bank cut rates for a fourth consecutive meeting, but inflation risks persist. The move followed a softer-than-expected inflation print, and policymakers signaled that more cuts are likely. Our EM strategists have argued that both policymakers…
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Turkish Inflation Will Keep Slowing
Turkey’s disinflation is continuing as tight financial conditions weaken domestic demand, supporting an overweight in local-currency bonds. July CPI eased marginally to 31.8% y/y from 32.1% in June. Elevated policy and lending rates have restrained credit…
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South Africa: Surprise Hold
The South African Reserve Bank will not be able to hold rates for long. The SARB held its policy rate at 7%, defying expectations for a 25 bps hike. With inflation reaccelerating above the target band, our Emerging Markets strategists believe policymakers…
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India: Inflation Constrains The RBI
Indian headline CPI rose to 4.4%, limiting the RBI’s scope to ease and creating a less supportive backdrop for Indian assets. The increase pushed inflation above the RBI’s 4% target, though it remains within the tolerance band. Higher fuel and food prices…
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Higher Rates Can’t Save Manila
The Philippines’ central bank raised rates to 4.75%, but higher policy rates are unlikely to provide much support to the peso or local assets. The central bank hiked by 25 bps, citing rising energy and food inflation. With headline CPI already well above…
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2026 World Cup: Wednesday Games
Wednesday brings four more group-stage games, split between Groups K and L. The day is heavy on favorites, but our model identifies a few spots where markets may be underpricing the chasing teams. In Group K, Portugal opens against the Democratic…
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2026 World Cup: Monday Games
Groups G and H take center stage on Monday, with four games that mostly pit clear market favorites against a more cautious BCA model. Outside of Spain in Group H, which both our model (84%) and betting markets (90%) expect to beat Cabo Verde, our model…
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Still Room To Ease In Mexico
Mexican inflation has eased back to the high end of the target range, but Banxico likely still has room to cut over a cyclical horizon. Some concern around core price pressures remains, and Banxico ended its two-year easing cycle last month. Our Emerging…
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Indonesia Surprises
Bank Indonesia’s off-cycle rate hike was a defensive move to slow the rupiah’s slide, not a change in the broader policy story. After raising its policy rate to 5.25% at last week's scheduled meeting, the Indonesian central bank surprised with an unscheduled…