Armen Hamazaspyan
Research Analyst
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The RBI’s Rate Hike Won't Derail India's Recovery
The RBI raised its repo rate to 5.50% amid expectations of reaccelerating inflation and a weakening INR. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect the reacceleration in inflation to be temporary, as the Indian economy has absorbed much of the shock from energy…
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Brazil’s Easing Cycle Nears A Pause
Brazilian inflation has eased enough for the BCB to continue cutting rates, but persistent domestic and external pressures should bring the easing cycle to a pause. The central bank delivered a fifth consecutive 25 bps cut, taking the policy rate to 13.75%.…
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A Better Setup For Indian Assets
Indian inflation remains contained, while a stronger external backdrop and reaccelerating domestic demand support overweight positions in Indian equities and local-currency bonds. Headline CPI edged up to 4.4% in August but remained within the RBI’s target…
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Mexico’s Disinflationary Backdrop
Mexico’s August headline CPI edged up to 3.3%, but remains comfortably within Banxico’s target range. While services inflation continues to prove sticky, the broader inflation backdrop remains benign, reducing odds of Banxico tightening more than is priced in…
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Indonesia: The Rupiah Problem Persists
Indonesian headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.2%, moving closer to Bank Indonesia’s upper tolerance bound. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect inflation to remain elevated as higher food and energy import costs combine with the government’s continued…
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Stay Long The Won And 10-Year Bonds
The Bank of Korea (BoK) delivered a second consecutive hike by raising its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.0%. While another hike is possible this year, our Emerging Markets strategists think a surging Korean won will tighten financial conditions enough to…
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Energy Keeps the BoT Cautious
The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate unchanged at 1%, against a backdrop of weak domestic demand and a still-elevated energy import bill. Although inflation has slowed and domestic demand subdued, the BoT continues to face significant imported inflation…
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Indonesia’s “Growth-First” Trap
Bank Indonesia held rates at 5.75%, reinforcing our EM strategists’ view that earlier hikes were temporary measures to support the rupiah rather than a shift away from growth-first policy. Inflationary fiscal policy remains a concern as the government…
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Poland: No Inflation Flareup, But No Easing Anytime Soon
Polish core inflation remains contained, even as higher fuel costs continue to feed into underlying price pressures. Headline July inflation was in line with consensus at 3.0% y/y, while core printed at 3.1%. With the external inflation backdrop still…
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Indian Inflation Remains Too High
Indian headline CPI stayed around 4.4% in July, keeping inflation above the 4% target but still within the RBI’s tolerance band. Food and fuel prices continue to account for much of the inflationary pressure, though core inflation also remains elevated. Given…