Armen Hamazaspyan
Research Analyst
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Indonesia: The Rupiah Problem Persists
Indonesian headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.2%, moving closer to Bank Indonesia’s upper tolerance bound. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect inflation to remain elevated as higher food and energy import costs combine with the government’s continued…
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Stay Long The Won And 10-Year Bonds
The Bank of Korea (BoK) delivered a second consecutive hike by raising its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.0%. While another hike is possible this year, our Emerging Markets strategists think a surging Korean won will tighten financial conditions enough to…
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Energy Keeps the BoT Cautious
The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate unchanged at 1%, against a backdrop of weak domestic demand and a still-elevated energy import bill. Although inflation has slowed and domestic demand subdued, the BoT continues to face significant imported inflation…
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Indonesia’s “Growth-First” Trap
Bank Indonesia held rates at 5.75%, reinforcing our EM strategists’ view that earlier hikes were temporary measures to support the rupiah rather than a shift away from growth-first policy. Inflationary fiscal policy remains a concern as the government…
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Poland: No Inflation Flareup, But No Easing Anytime Soon
Polish core inflation remains contained, even as higher fuel costs continue to feed into underlying price pressures. Headline July inflation was in line with consensus at 3.0% y/y, while core printed at 3.1%. With the external inflation backdrop still…
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Indian Inflation Remains Too High
Indian headline CPI stayed around 4.4% in July, keeping inflation above the 4% target but still within the RBI’s tolerance band. Food and fuel prices continue to account for much of the inflationary pressure, though core inflation also remains elevated. Given…
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Brazil’s Inflation Problem Isn’t Solved
Brazil’s central bank cut rates for a fourth consecutive meeting, but inflation risks persist. The move followed a softer-than-expected inflation print, and policymakers signaled that more cuts are likely. Our EM strategists have argued that both policymakers…
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Turkish Inflation Will Keep Slowing
Turkey’s disinflation is continuing as tight financial conditions weaken domestic demand, supporting an overweight in local-currency bonds. July CPI eased marginally to 31.8% y/y from 32.1% in June. Elevated policy and lending rates have restrained credit…
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South Africa: Surprise Hold
The South African Reserve Bank will not be able to hold rates for long. The SARB held its policy rate at 7%, defying expectations for a 25 bps hike. With inflation reaccelerating above the target band, our Emerging Markets strategists believe policymakers…
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India: Inflation Constrains The RBI
Indian headline CPI rose to 4.4%, limiting the RBI’s scope to ease and creating a less supportive backdrop for Indian assets. The increase pushed inflation above the RBI’s 4% target, though it remains within the tolerance band. Higher fuel and food prices…