Stay long Turkish 2-year bonds and overweight Turkey in EM domestic credit as slowing inflation supports further easing. The Turkish central bank cut its policy rate by 150 bps to 38% amid slowing inflation. Our Emerging Markets…
The Central Bank of Turkey cut its 1-week repo rate by 100 bps to 39.5%, in line with expectations. Our Emerging Markets strategists see room for further cuts as moderating inflation and subdued activity justify additional policy…
Turkey’s disinflation trend remains intact, supporting a bullish case for short-term bonds. Headline inflation eased to 33% y/y in August from 33.5% in July. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect further slowing as monetary and…
Turkey’s financial policymakers have pursued a disciplined and restrictive policy mix so far, delivering high real interest rates and curbing fiscal expansion even as the economy slows. This commitment to inflation control has paved the…
Our Emerging Markets strategists upgraded Turkey across assets, citing falling inflation, tight policy, and limited external imbalances. The Central Bank of Turkey cut its benchmark 1-week repo rate by 300 bps to 43%, citing…
Thanks to the tight monetary and fiscal policies so far, inflation and growth are heading lower in Turkey. Buy 2-year local currency bonds, currency unhedged. Also, upgrade Turkey's domestic bonds from neutral to overweight and…
Turkey’s tight policy stance will weigh on growth and earnings, reinforcing our bearish view on Turkish equities. The central bank held rates at 46% and maintained a hawkish bias, consistent with efforts to bring inflation down from…
Our Geopolitical strategists recommend underweighting Turkish assets. Erdogan’s weakening rule, rising social unrest, and eroding governance are deepening Turkey’s macro deterioration. Inflation will stay sticky as odds of new…
After a period of relative stability and progress towards policy orthodoxy, politics are again haunting Turkish assets. President Erdogan jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a political rival from the opposition party gaining…