Geopolitics
Our Geopolitical strategists expect geopolitical risk to ease modestly in Q3, with the notable exception of Russia, where tensions appear underrated. The US midterm election will force the Trump administration to delay major geopolitical and trade conflicts,…
The weekend saw renewed kinetic exchanges in the Middle East, in a ceasefire that has thus far done as much firing as ceasing. The weekend exchange was a fairly controlled escalation. Iran attacked a Qatari container ship and oil tanker. The US retaliated…
Our Commodity and GeoMacro strategists view a potential "Super El Niño" as a meaningful upside threat to agricultural prices. This creates material political and fiscal risks for vulnerable emerging and frontier markets. With several forecasting agencies…
The risk of a “super El Niño” represents a meaningful threat to agricultural markets. Wheat, cocoa, and palm oil appear particularly vulnerable to El Niño-related supply disruptions.
A rise in food prices could also generate political — and potentially geopolitical — reverberations across frontier and emerging markets, where food prices are far more relevant than in developed economies.
We have long argued, on a case-by-case basis, that countries willing to play the superpowers against each other win in a multipolar world. The logic is intuitive, and in this report, we measure it systematically.
The US-Iran deal should hold in the near term, but its durability beyond the midterms looks doubtful. Our Geopolitical strategists see both sides as highly motivated to keep the deal alive for now. Even if there is another kinetic exchange or incident before…
Our US Political strategists argue that while the midterms matter, geopolitics is the main risk this year. Their quantitative model points to Republicans narrowly holding the Senate at 51-49, but our colleagues are skeptical and subjectively assign a 60%…
Our Geopolitical strategists believe the April 8 ceasefire remains broadly intact despite the latest Israel-Iran exchange and the absence of a formal US-Iran agreement. Both Washington and Tehran are using the current window to build negotiating leverage.…
Our clients see geopolitics as the dominant underpriced risk. In this week's poll, we asked what risk markets are most underpricing. A US-Iran ceasefire collapsing drew the largest share of BCA clients at 64%, while a Russia-NATO incident ranked second at…
US-Iran talks are again under strain after Monday’s exchange of fire and Israel’s attacks in Lebanon, but the escalation cycle still remains negotiations-driven and at least a short-term deal that restarts shipping this summer remains likely. Oil rose more…