Gabriel Gosselin
Research Associate
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A House Divided: Index Calm Masking Election Risk
Our US Equity strategists see index-level protection as inexpensive and would use it to hedge election risk that markets have priced beneath the surface. Betting markets put the odds of a Democratic House flip above 90%, yet little of the volatility premium…
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Philly Fed: Manufacturing Eases, But From A High Level
The Philadelphia Fed survey signals that manufacturing momentum remained resilient in October. The headline index fell more than expected, to 20.9 from 37.8, but still points to expansion and sits at a historically high level. New orders, employment, and…
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Argentina: All Destruction, No Creation – Take Profits
Our EM strategists are closing long positions in Argentine assets, as the creative destruction promised by President Milei’s shock therapy has arrived without the creation that was meant to follow. Tight monetary and fiscal settings, an uncompetitive peso,…
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Why There’s A Floor Under Brent
Our Commodity strategists expect crude prices to stay elevated until the Iran conflict and the logistical disruptions around it are resolved. Brent has failed to break decisively below $100/bbl even with Middle Eastern exports back at pre-crisis levels. Steep…
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Under Pressure Down Under
Australia’s September NAB Business Survey signals softening activity that will limit the RBA’s hawkishness. Business conditions held in negative territory at -1, after turning negative last month for the first time since 2020. A modest rebound in profits and…
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Riding The Carry Wave
Our FX strategists still recommend long-carry stance with the high-yielders in G10 FX, favoring NOK and AUD against SEK, CHF, and EUR. Several of these positions have run a long way and look stretched, but with low volatility and no imminent catalyst for a…
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No Ceasefires, No Relief
Global geopolitical risk remains elevated heading into Q4 as no ceasefire has materialized in either Europe or the Middle East. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jesse Kuri, GeoMacro strategist, and Matt Gertken, Head of GeoMacro. Our colleagues maintain a…
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A Bad Place For A Plague
Our GeoMacro strategists argue that the Irkutsk plague scare is not yet a crisis, but Russia is a bad place for one to happen. Based on reported facts, the epidemiological situation is reassuring: Moscow has not confirmed plague, none of the roughly 200…
