Gabriel Gosselin
Research Associate
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What’s Actually New About The Total Portfolio Approach?
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists argue the total portfolio approach (TPA) is less a novel strategy than an amalgamation of strategic asset allocation (SAA) best practices. No single ruleset defines the TPA. Our colleagues instead describe a suite of…
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Trading Bonds On Vibes
Our GeoMacro strategists see the long-dated Treasury selloff as a story about vibes rather than technical factors. Unorthodox US policy and persistent supply shocks have given markets indigestion, with the tone the White House is setting on the Iran war…
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Don’t Fear 5% Treasury Yields
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists remain overweight equities, arguing that investors overestimate the threat current interest rate levels pose to equities and the economy. Even with the long end rising, the gap between high-yield borrowing costs and…
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Are Crack Spreads About To Crack?
Our Commodity strategists judge that crack spreads are near their peak; the next big move will be to the downside. The record premium of refined product prices over crude reflects a bifurcated oil market, in which the pain from the supply disruption sits at…
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Poland: Superstar Or Shooting Star?
Our European investment strategists see Poland's near-term growth story as still compelling, with accelerating EU investment supporting equity outperformance. Real GDP has more than doubled since accession in 2004, helped by export integration, EU…
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PMIs: Resilient Growth, Cooling Prices
August global flash PMIs showed manufacturing holding up while services activity strengthened further. As discussed during our BCA Live meeting, US manufacturing softened marginally to 53.2 from 53.9, against expectations of a flat reading, but stayed at a…
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Too Early To Position For A Bear Market
Our Global Investment strategists are neutral on stocks for now but see an unfavorable longer-term outlook for equities. Consensus estimates point to record earnings growth on top of record-high margins, which would require unprecedented new revenue from…
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The Equity Wealth Effect Is Real
Our US Investment strategists see the US economy as increasingly sensitive to equity market moves and expect aggregate demand to lose momentum when the bull market cools. Income remains the single biggest influence on consumption, but it has ceded ground to…
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Sweden And Norway: A Reversal Of Fortunes
Our European and FX strategists see the Iranian war and resulting energy shock reversing Nordic fortunes, and favor Norway over Sweden. Sweden's recovery is stalling while Norway reaps a windfall from the same shock. Our colleagues note that Sweden's exposure…
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Petrochemicals: A Chinese Pivot To Coal
Our Commodity strategists see China's pivot to coal-derived petrochemical feedstock as a long-term tailwind for Chinese coal prices, and a structural headwind for global oil demand growth. Petrochemicals account for most of the net increase in oil demand in…