Gabriel Gosselin
Research Associate
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Brazil: Off Course
Our EM strategists are downgrading Brazilian equities from neutral to underweight and advise absolute-return investors to stay clear of Brazilian markets. They maintain underweights in domestic bonds and sovereign credit within their respective EM portfolios.…
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Japanese Profit Margin Expansion: The End Is Nigh
Our EM strategists expect the structural expansion in Japanese profit margins to end. Over the past decade, wider margins owed little to gains in labor productivity or operational efficiency, resting instead on massive currency devaluation and lower…
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Russian Provocations Will Rattle Markets
Our Geopolitical strategists expect the Ukraine war to escalate, which could rattle markets over the coming weeks and months. Investors read geopolitical risk as declining on US-Iran diplomacy, but our colleagues see immediate signs of serious escalation that…
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Australia: Done Hiking Despite Hawkish Rhetoric
The RBA's tightening cycle is likely over, despite Governor Bullock's hawkish tone. The cash rate was left unchanged at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting, in line with consensus, after three hikes earlier this year. The decision was unanimous. Updated…
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Value Destruction And Creation In The AI Capex Boom
Our US Equity strategists remain constructive on the S&P 500 but expect the AI capex boom to divide Tech between hyperscalers and neoclouds. Robust EPS growth, cloud revenues and backlogs herald continued AI investment, supporting our colleagues’ 8100…
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China And EM Profitability: A Floor, Not A Launch Pad
Our EM strategists see no case for structural EM equity outperformance and recommend a neutral allocation within global equity portfolios. Outside semiconductor producers and financials, EM profitability sits well below that of US peers and the levels reached…
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Sweden's Upside Inflation Surprise Won't Move the Riksbank
July's upside surprise in Swedish core inflation should not derail an on-hold Riksbank. Headline CPIF eased to 0.7% y/y (-0.3% m/m), broadly in line with estimates. CPIF excluding energy accelerated to 0.6% y/y (0.4% m/m), above both economists’ estimates and…
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Only The Ayatollah And Putin Can Save The Bears Now
Our GeoMacro strategists stay overweight equities, expecting the bull market to run further. The July earnings season has confirmed the AI capex engine is still running hot, just as Iran-US tensions peaked. Cloud revenue at the three largest hyperscalers grew…
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The AI Capex ROI Is Showing Up
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists see the return on AI capex now becoming visible in reported results, clearing the way for the bull market to move higher. Investors have stayed deeply skeptical about the profitability of the buildout, yet Q2 earnings…
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Digging For Quality: The Case For Goldminers
Our US Equity strategists are going long GDX as both a gold-linked hedge and a quality story. Gold and miners have corrected 25% from January highs, creating an interesting entry point. Our colleagues see further upside for gold if the cyclical backdrop…