Gabriel Gosselin
Research Associate
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Capitulation... You On Stocks Or Trump On Iran
Our GeoMacro strategists remain constructive on equities and see the October tech selloff as a geopolitical event rather than a verdict on artificial intelligence. Brent appreciated 12.9% in October alone, and our colleagues attribute the 6.7% drop in Nasdaq…
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After The Midterms: Commodity Divergences Have Further To Run
Our Commodity strategists see the divergences across the commodity complex running further, with a likely post-midterms escalation in the Iran conflict and low inventories keeping energy prices elevated near term. European gas inventories are entering the…
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AI, Rates, Energy – Are We At The Peak?
Our Portfolio Construction strategists remain bullish on risk assets but express that view through barbells across the portfolio. October looked cataclysmic from the headlines, with neocloud debt spreads spiking and Alphabet suffering its worst one-day loss…
Gabriel Gosselin, Sanjiv Thomas
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Indonesia: A Value Trap
Our EM strategists see Indonesian financial assets as a value trap rather than a buying opportunity. There is room for the ongoing sell-off in Indonesian assets to run further as the country’s macro backdrop deteriorates. President Prabowo’s growth push will…
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Bond Yields Now Follow The AI Trade
AI equity performance has replaced oil as the main driver of US Treasury yields, setting up a rotation out of AI stocks into the rest of the market. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Ryan Swift, our Chief US Bonds Strategist. Bond yields now track AI stocks…
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United Kingdom: 99 Problems But Breakup Ain’t One!
Our GeoMacro strategists expect the UK to hold together despite severe economic and political strain, and see secessionism as contained. The UK has four basic geopolitical imperatives (unity in England, unity across the British Isles, a European balance of…
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China Housing: Searching For The Bottom
Our China strategists argue it is too soon to turn positive on Chinese developers’ equities. After a sharp five-year correction, China’s top-tier housing market will likely bottom out next year. But our colleagues expect the rest of the country to keep…
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Refined Product Prices Will Follow Crude’s Lead
Our Commodity strategists see little room for crack spreads to narrow further in the near term and expect product prices to follow crude higher. Despite the resilient recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports, risks to the supply outlook have driven Brent to…
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Beyond Hormuz: Five Chokepoints That Investors Should Monitor
Our GeoMacro strategists see Taiwanese chip production and Chinese rare earths as the chokepoints that matter most for portfolios, beyond the ongoing Hormuz shock. The Iran conflict and the closure of the strait prompted investors to ask which other links can…
