Junfei Guo
Research Associate
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Modeling The Midterms, 2026
Democrats are likely to win big in this year's midterm elections. Our new quant model still slightly favors Republicans for the Senate, but we expect the oil shock to deliver surprise Democratic victories.
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A Short Geopolitical Outlook For 2026
2026 will see geopolitical risk move sideways globally as the US pursues a ceasefire in the proxy war with Russia and a tariff truce with China ahead of midterm elections that will produce gridlock.
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Our Best And Worst Calls Of 2025
We got Trump's tariff shock and backtracking correct and predicted Israel's attack on Iran. But we missed the China rally — and there is still no Ukraine ceasefire.
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Geopolitics And US Politics, Q4
Rising Russia-NATO risks, tactical oil/gold trades, tougher sanctions on Russia (maybe China), China stimulus with ~5% growth target, and US checks on Trump’s ambitions will define Q4.
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Geopolitical Strategy: Five Black Swans For 2025
In this Special Report, BCA’s Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist Matt Gertken discusses the top five “Black Swan” risks for 2025, from Trump to China.
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Five Black Swans For 2025
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US military action across the Americas, and an internationally coordinated FX intervention.
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(Geo)Political Report Card, 2024
We were far too bearish on the US economy in 2024 – but the global economy remained sluggish and we got the critical geopolitical calls right.We predicted the Republican sweep in the US and the outbreak of direct military hostilities between Israel and Iran. We anticipated the escalation in Ukraine and Russia-NATO tensions that is taking place as we go to press. We stayed overweight US assets relative to global. We did not get blindsided by any of the elections in this “year of elections” – we traded several of them successfully. However, we disfavored cyclical sectors. We fought momentum stocks and lost. Many other trades turned sour. Equity volatility picked up substantially in 2024 as expected, but our attempts to take advantage of this shift fell flat.
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The Critical Hour: Geopolitical Outlook, Q4 2024
Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.
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Geopolitics In Q2 2024
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and defense.
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Key Views: US Politics In 2024
Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.