Strategy Outlook

The Critical Hour: Geopolitical Outlook, Q4 2024

27 Sep 2024

by Yushu Ma, Associate Editor Max Malakhveitchouk, Research Analyst Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist Junfei Guo, Research Associate Jesse Anak Kuri, Editor/Strategist

Mid East Conflict

Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.

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BCA Research | Geopolitical Strategy

The financial industry’s premier geopolitical research service. We use hard data to calculate scenario probabilities and market impacts for geopolitical risks and opportunities.