Labor Market

The global economy has weathered the oil shock reasonably well so far. However, the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June.

So far, there is no evidence of second-round effects from the oil price shock showing up in the US economy. Fed rate hikes are off the table unless those effects emerge.

FOMC participants are coalescing around the idea that the funds rate will stay on hold for some time, an outcome that is now well priced in the bond market and that will not materially change under a new Fed Chair.

We do not expect the oil shock to have a lasting effect on inflation. Looking further out, a variety of structural forces will influence inflation, including fiscal policy, globalization, demographics, and AI.

The rates market is moving back into a low vol regime, but with yields at a higher level. This argues for maximizing carry across the Treasury curve.

The labor market showed signs of reviving in the first three months of this year, but it is yet to be determined how consumers will react to the energy supply shock. We reiterate our benchmark asset allocation recommendations, but are skeptical that S&P 500 earnings growth will meet outsized expectations over the rest of 2026.

US employment data show some tentative signs of job growth acceleration and stable utilization. We see breakeven monthly job growth as closer to +30k per month than zero.

The Turkish financial markets will struggle in the very near term, but beyond that, the cyclical disinflation process will resume. Fixed-income investors should put Turkish 2-year local currencybonds on a ‘buy’ watch list.

The gap between PCE and CPI inflation will narrow within the next few months, mostly driven by core PCE inflation converging toward its trimmed mean.

The spike in oil and gas prices has raised the odds of a global economic downturn. Combined with a more negative signal from our MacroQuant model, this warrants tactically downgrading stocks from neutral to underweight. Looking further ahead, the Iran war will lead to bigger defense budgets and a greater focus on energy self-sufficiency.