Behind-the-scenes Ukraine peace negotiations suggest rising odds of a ceasefire, posing downside risks for European defense equities. Despite President Zelensky’s public rejection of the proposal, talks continue privately. The draft…
Reduce risk exposure in the very near term as President Trump's ceasefire effort falters, Russia tensions spike, and US-China trade prospects suffer.
Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to…
Our Geopolitical strategists expect a Ukraine ceasefire as Russia’s economic weakness compels Putin to shift focus from war to domestic stability. The likely outcome is not peace, but a frozen conflict that enables Russia to…
Negotiations on trade, Iran, and Ukraine will prove critical this month. Markets will remain volatile because positive data surprises enable the White House to press its hawkish tariff hikes, while negative surprises force the White…
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.
President Trump is negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine. This will be a marginal headwind to some commodities which benefitted from the conflict like natural gas and wheat, and will be a marginal tailwind for European assets,…
Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.China will retaliate against Trump…
With cross-asset price action mainly revolving around the Trump trade since the election, Tuesday’s headlines surrounding Russia and Ukraine brought investors’ attention back abroad. As predicted by our Geopolitical…