Strategy Outlook

Five Black Swans For 2025

09 Jan 2025

by Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist Jesse Anak Kuri, Editor/Strategist Yushu Ma, Associate Editor Max Malakhveitchouk, Research Analyst Junfei Guo, Research Associate

Economic Sanctions

War/Conflict

Trump's Policies

Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US military action across the Americas, and an internationally coordinated FX intervention.

Interested in reading this report?

To access the full BCA Research report, request a complimentary copy

BCA Research | Geopolitical Strategy

The financial industry’s premier geopolitical research service. We use hard data to calculate scenario probabilities and market impacts for geopolitical risks and opportunities.