(Geo)Political Report Card, 2024
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- We were far too bearish on the US economy in 2024 – but the global economy remained sluggish and we got the critical geopolitical calls right.
- We predicted the Republican sweep in the US and the outbreak of direct military hostilities between Israel and Iran. We anticipated the escalation in Ukraine and Russia-NATO tensions that is taking place as we go to press.
- We stayed overweight US assets relative to global. We did not get blindsided by any of the elections in this “year of elections” – we traded several of them successfully.
- However, we disfavored cyclical sectors. We fought momentum stocks and lost. Many other trades turned sour.
- Equity volatility picked up substantially in 2024 as expected, but our attempts to take advantage of this shift fell flat.
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BCA Research | GeoMacro
A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.
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