Deborah Acri
Research Associate
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Central Bank Monitor Update: The Limits Of The New Tightening Cycle
Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricing is justified and identify tactical opportunities across global bond and currency markets.
Deborah Acri, Jeremie Peloso, Menglin Ji, Sanjiv Thomas
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Global Inflation-Linked Bonds: Inflation Forecasts Favor ILBs Amid Energy Risks
In this Strategy Insight, we assess how Middle East-related energy and shipping disruptions are shaping the global inflation outlook and review the implications for inflation-linked bond markets. We also examine the outlook for core inflation and the resulting implications for central bank policy and duration positioning.
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Global Model Bond Portfolio Q3/26: The End Of UST Outperformance
We review our Model Bond Portfolio performance for Q2 and look ahead as fixed income markets move beyond the US-Iran conflict, which is finding its kinetic equilibrium. Valuations and growth differentials are moving against continued US Treasury outperformance.
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Markets Are Overpricing BoC Tightening
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged and emphasized inflation risks from higher oil prices. We discuss why inflation and labor market data argue against the tightening currently priced.
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Central Bank Monitor Update: No Move Until June
Central banks remain on hold amid heightened uncertainty. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.
Deborah Acri, Jeremie Peloso, Eugenia Pan, Sanjiv Thomas
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q2/26: Three Scenarios, One Direction for Yields
Volatility is high, but the path for yields is clearer than it looks. Across three oil scenarios, we show how policy responses shape fixed income markets and why the balance of risks still points to lower yields.
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Quarterly Investment Outlook: The R Word Being Whispered
We are pleased to introduce our new Quarterly Investment Outlook, a joint publication bringing together the European Investment Strategy (EIS), Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS), and Foreign Exchange Strategy teams. The main takeaway of the current edition is that investors should not add risk. Markets are still focused on inflation, but the binding constraint is growth: if the energy shock persists into mid-April, a rapid shift toward recession pricing will follow.
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How Green Bonds Can Support Nuclear Energy Finance
Momentum behind nuclear energy is accelerating, yet financing remains the critical constraint. In this Special Report, we examine how evolving taxonomies and green bond frameworks are reshaping access to sustainable capital and assess whether they can meaningfully support the revival of nuclear energy.
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Central Bank Monitor Update: Who Can Land The Economy Softly?
Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.
Deborah Acri, Jeremie Peloso, Sarman Chandhok, Eugenia Pan
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Global Inflation-Linked Bonds: Markets Catching Up
Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are inflating US expectations, pricing in the UK, Japan, and Australia has adjusted sharply. Today’s Strategy Report reviews these developments and updates our country-level ILB positioning.