Menglin Ji
Research Associate
-
Sweden & Canada: Bedfellows During The Trade Storm
Canada’s efforts to diversify away from the US are starting to pay off. As the US has shifted its trade policy, Canada has aimed to broaden its trade ties, including through deeper engagement with Europe. As a result, Sweden has quietly become one of…
-
Germany's Hormuz Crisis
After Hormuz, Germany faces another shipping chokepoint, at home this time. Water level at the Rhine's river’s most critical chokepoint, Kaub, has fallen to just 11cm, the lowest reading since the 1970s. Forecasters warn it could take weeks of sustained rain…
-
Sweden And Norway: A Reversal Of Fortunes
The war in Iran and the energy shock are driving a reversal of Nordic fortunes: Sweden’s recovery is faltering just as Norway receives a welcome energy windfall. Favor Norwegian over Swedish equities and buy NOK/SEK. In rates, fade aggressive Riksbank hike expectations and downgrade Norwegian government bonds to neutral.
-
France Wildfires: Insurers Don’t Feel The Heat
The wildfires tearing through France are mounting an extraordinary insurance bill, yet, surprisingly, French insurance stocks have remained resilient. Since the beginning of 2026, burnt areas in France have reached more than 117,000 hectares, the most in…
-
The Small-Parcel Party Is Over
July marked the end of de minimis exemptions in Europe, pointing to the inflationary consequences of the retreat from globalization. Starting July 1st, the European Union imposed a flat €3 customs duty on all parcels valued under €150, ending a duty-free…
-
2026 World Cup: And Now For The Semi-Finals…
France and Spain meet in Dallas today, in what many have already dubbed it the final before the final, and it is easy to see why. France has been the tournament's most prolific team, scoring more goals than any other team in the competition. Six matches…
-
Good News For Europe: Algeria Hits The Gas
Algeria may offer the European Union some relief from its natural gas supply squeeze. Algeria has become the EU’s third-largest natural gas supplier, delivering around 40 billion cubic meters in 2025, accounting for roughly 14% of total EU imports. The timing…
-
2026 World Cup: Tuesday Games
Tuesday concludes the Round of 16, with two matches in Atlanta and Vancouver determining the last two quarter-finalists. Argentina's path to this stage was harder than expected, needing extra-time to get a 3-2 win over Cape Verde, but Messi remains in…
-
2026 World Cup: Tuesday’s Games
Our World Cup model correctly predicted 26 of the 32 teams advancing out of the group stage. With the knockout rounds now underway, we have published an updated model to reflect the new format. Across today's three fixtures, our model is broadly in agreement…
-
2026 World Cup: Spotlight On CR7
Tuesday's four matches span Groups K and L, completing the second round of fixtures for both groups and sharpening qualification scenarios considerably. Portugal looks the part on paper, and our model agrees; the Seleção Portuguesa has an 86% chance of…