Menglin Ji
Research Associate
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Spain Housing Crisis: Snap Election, No Snap Solution
Spain’s housing crisis is worsening. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchezhas called a snap election after two rent control proposals failed in parliament. Housing has become the defining political battleground issue. But the crisis has structural roots that run deep.…
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Despite Wide Spreads, Stay Underweight French Bonds
The OAT-Bund spread has widened sharply in recent weeks, reaching 150 bps last Friday, before falling back towards 140 bps. The drivers are homegrown: rising concerns about the fiscal outlook and the political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential…
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Central Bank Monitor Update: The Limits Of The New Tightening Cycle
Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricing is justified and identify tactical opportunities across global bond and currency markets.
Deborah Acri, Jeremie Peloso, Menglin Ji, Sanjiv Thomas
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Sweden Flashes A Warning Sign For Europe
Sweden's economy is sending an ominous signal. GDP contracted 0.8% m/m, dragging the three-month moving average to zero, with industrial output as the primary drag. As our European and FICC teams have noted, the Swedish industrial cycle has been slowing down.…
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Sweden & Canada: Bedfellows During The Trade Storm
Canada’s efforts to diversify away from the US are starting to pay off. As the US has shifted its trade policy, Canada has aimed to broaden its trade ties, including through deeper engagement with Europe. As a result, Sweden has quietly become one of Canada’s…
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Germany's Hormuz Crisis
After Hormuz, Germany faces another shipping chokepoint, at home this time. Water level at the Rhine's river’s most critical chokepoint, Kaub, has fallen to just 11cm, the lowest reading since the 1970s. Forecasters warn it could take weeks of sustained rain…
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Sweden And Norway: A Reversal Of Fortunes
The war in Iran and the energy shock are driving a reversal of Nordic fortunes: Sweden’s recovery is faltering just as Norway receives a welcome energy windfall. Favor Norwegian over Swedish equities and buy NOK/SEK. In rates, fade aggressive Riksbank hike expectations and downgrade Norwegian government bonds to neutral.
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France Wildfires: Insurers Don’t Feel The Heat
The wildfires tearing through France are mounting an extraordinary insurance bill, yet, surprisingly, French insurance stocks have remained resilient. Since the beginning of 2026, burnt areas in France have reached more than 117,000 hectares, the most in…
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The Small-Parcel Party Is Over
July marked the end of de minimis exemptions in Europe, pointing to the inflationary consequences of the retreat from globalization. Starting July 1st, the European Union imposed a flat €3 customs duty on all parcels valued under €150, ending a duty-free…
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2026 World Cup: And Now For The Semi-Finals…
France and Spain meet in Dallas today, in what many have already dubbed it the final before the final, and it is easy to see why. France has been the tournament's most prolific team, scoring more goals than any other team in the competition. Six matches…