Housing

The US residential real estate market remains soft. While the decline in mortgage rates is a positive, it is too early to bet on housing becoming the engine of growth for the US economy this year.

In the Alpha report, we maintain our bullishness on the equity market. We are optimistic that the cash-fueled cycle will evolve into a leverage-driven one, with the AI capex cycle acting as the "bridge" between the two. Our view is easily falsifiable. If the 10-year yield starts moving against us, we will pull the plug on the cycle. One reason to fret is that tariff revenue has now become critical to the equity bull market. Without it, bonds could riot.