Consumer
Germany’s September retail sales miss clouds the euro area consumption outlook and supports overweighing German Bunds over US Treasurys. Retail volume ex-vehicles contracted 2% month-on-month, significantly underperforming expectations of 0.4% growth. It was…
Today's report examines several of the most interesting ideas we've heard over two weeks of meetings and calls with investors.
We highlight several potential inflections in well-established structural factors, pointing out ways that markets might respond differently this time to economic data and policy actions.
“Core” US retail sales growth was tepid in September, but meaningfully stronger than confidence measures implied. Headline sales rose 0.8% m/m, a slowdown from August but above consensus expectations. The core measure excluding autos and gas also increased…
Falling consumer confidence measures highlight that Democrats are likely to sweep the midterm next month. US consumer confidence measures have recently declined. The present situation component of the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined…
The US consumer is not benefitting from AI-related activity. Over the past 25 years, labor’s share of US national income has been in a structural decline. We have monitored cyclical developments in labor’s income share on BCA’s artificial intelligence…
Falling Euro Area consumer confidence and greater energy exposure favor US over European equities near-term. Euro Area consumer confidence fell in September, ending a four-month upswing. The European Commission's flash index dropped 1 percentage point (p.p.)…
August retail sales were stronger than estimates and showed a clear rebound in consumer spending, but the broader pattern still does not point to an overheating US economy. Headline sales rose 1.2% m/m after falling 0.5% in July. The core measure excluding…
Our Bank Credit Analyst colleagues recommend maintaining benchmark allocations to equities and other risk assets, as the post-pandemic expansion remains intact amid balanced growth. Hiring has revived after a weak 2025, with employers adding an average of 80k…
Concerns about the savings rate’s sustainability ease after adjusting for retirements and capital gains. The US economy continues to grow at a pace that is neither too hot nor too cold and investors should remain fully invested in risk assets.