Allen Li
Research Analyst
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It’s Tough To Be A Bear These Days
The market’s return to all-time highs is a timely reminder that seemingly irrational optimism is often rewarded by financial markets. Economic resilience, institutional durability, and human ingenuity over the past decade have no doubt caught even some bulls…
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Hedge Stocks… With Stocks?
Investors aiming to reduce exposure to AI-related market volatility should seek refuge in the equal-weight S&P 500. The equal-weight index (EWI) meaningfully outperformed the cap-weighted index during the dotcom bust and delivered strong returns in the…
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Is A CAD Rebound In The Cards?
The USD/CAD is oversold but faces unique political risk going into the fall. The CAD is one of the worst-performing G10 currencies year-to-date, despite a 30% increase in oil prices over the same time frame. Widening real interest rate…
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MacroQuant Model Update: Playing With Fire
MacroQuant recommends underweighting equities and adopting a benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios. The model is very positive on the US dollar, bearish on gold, neutral on copper, and bullish on oil.
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Is The US Equity Market In A Bubble?
Based on our bubble indicator, the US equity market is not currently in a bubble. The Nasdaq’s sharp 26% gain since March 30 has further fueled fears that US equities are in bubble territory. However, while conditions are frothy, our indicator sits below the…
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What Should Investors Do About Gold?
Gold has become a tactical laggard versus equities, even if the longer-term bull case remains intact. After rising alongside stocks for most of the past two years, gold has sharply underperformed since February 27, falling almost 20% as global equities…
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MacroQuant Model Update: The Ducks Are Quacking
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, is very positive on the US dollar, downgrades gold to underweight, upgrades copper to overweight, and remains very bullish on oil.
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MacroQuant: Not A Bear Yet
BCA’s MacroQuant’s equity model sees stocks as modestly overbought but not yet on the cusp of a bear market. The model’s overall US equity score comprises several components: Technicals (which include sentiment, positioning, and momentum), monetary and…
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MacroQuant Model Update: Elevator Up
MacroQuant recommends an underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, is neutral-to-slightly positive on the US dollar, remains neutral on gold, upgrades copper to neutral, and is very bullish on oil.
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MacroQuant Model Update: Beware Of The Oil Shock’s Second-Round Effects
MacroQuant recommends a strong underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, has become neutral-to-slightly positive on the US dollar, has downgraded gold to neutral and copper to a strong underweight, and is bullish on oil.