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Katia Shtrevensky

StrategistGeopolitics

Katia Shtrevensky helps investors understand which countries are best positioned to benefit from the geomacro backdrop. Her work focuses on measuring structural country features…
Katia Shtrevensky
  • GeoMacro

    A Bad Place For A Plague

    The Irkutsk plague scare is not yet a crisis, but if it becomes one, Russia is a bad place for it to happen.

    Hadi El Zein, Matt Gertken, Katia Shtrevensky

  • GeoMacro

    The FOMC Is Targeting… Geopolitics

    Long-dated bond yields rose another 48 bps since our last missive, quite a move in just a month. And yet, equities have remained resilient. This suggests that the move in bond yields is due to sanguine economic forces, not fiscal profligacy or inflation fears. In addition, the war in Iran is subsiding, partly because the Fed itself has conspired against it. Will President Trump restart the conflict regardless? Perhaps, however, the constraints are mounting against the White House foreign policy. We remain bullish on equities and reaffirm our view that investors with a long-term horizon should be nibbling at the current level of yields.To make sure that our bearish clients are happy, we pivot to the risk of higher tax rates in the US. Specifically, we try to answer the question of when markets price higher tax rates.

    Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky

  • Macro Intelligence for AI Workflows
    Essentials
    Macro Intelligence for AI Workflows
    Discover how BCA Intelligence brings current research and 75+ years of historical insight into modern investment workflows.
    Kurt Viehl, Shannon Lal, Mathieu Savary, Katia Shtrevensky
    30 Sep 2026
  • GeoMacro

    Only The Ayatollah And Putin Can Save The Bears Now

    Last month we "stuck our neck out" and reaffirmed our bullishness towards risk asset. This month, we have confirmation that the risky bet is paying off. Iran and the US remain materially constrained from total war. The AI capex thesis is holding up and slowly mutating into a price war that will only boost adoption and necessitate more investment. We open a new AI-related trade (long hard disk makers) and go long gold.

    Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky

  • GeoMacro Portfolio

    The Benefits Of Geopolitical Promiscuity

    We have long argued, on a case-by-case basis, that countries willing to play the superpowers against each other win in a multipolar world. The logic is intuitive, and in this report, we measure it systematically.

    Katia Shtrevensky

  • GeoMacro

    Beware The Second Derivative Of AI Capex

    Bears will fold like lawn chairs this summer as traffic returns to Hormuz, allowing markets to overcome seasonal malaise. But we are starting to see how the expansion ends. A macro brew of global central bank tightening due to stickier-than-expected inflation, negative second derivative in AI capex, and surging supply of equities due to Monster IPOs. Expect a blow-off rally until midterms, uncertainty after, calamity in 2027.

    Marko Papic, Matt Gertken, Katia Shtrevensky

  • GeoMacro

    Australia, Squares Up!

    In this month’s Beta Report, we assess what that structural tension means for investors under two distinct scenarios. In our base case – a multipolar world order – Australia's position turns out to be more advantageous than it appears. The great power capital expenditure race generates demand for precisely what Australia produces. In the tail risk – a hard bipolar rupture – the calculus inverts, and the same commodity dependencies that long appeared as structural strengths begin to look like structural liabilities.

    Katia Shtrevensky

  • GeoMacro

    Writing Geopolitical Puts: The Trump Doctrine

    As we publish this regularly scheduled GeoMacro Alpha Report, President Trump is warning of civilization-ending strikes against Iran. A bluff? Stage Five on the Seven Steps of Maximum Pressure? A real threat to use weapons of mass destruction? The odds and pattern of Trump's behavior are skewed towards the former, but even small odds of the latter make trading the next 24 hours dangerous.

    Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky, Jose Yanes

  • GeoMacro

    Three Myths About The Third Gulf War

    The market narrative around the Gulf conflict rests on three flawed myths: the UAE is not “finished,” Iran cannot close Hormuz indefinitely, and the war is not fundamentally about China.

    Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky

  • CoreMacro

    Brazil: Opportunity Meets Reality

    Brazil’s bleak macro outlook persists – rising debt, weak productivity, and political inertia. With 2026 elections looming, genuine reform seems unlikely, though Argentina’s bold turnaround could pressure Brasília to rethink its cycle of governability over growth.

    Katia Shtrevensky, Max Malakhveitchouk, Juan Egana