Katia Shtrevensky | BCA Research

GeoMacro

Only The Ayatollah And Putin Can Save The Bears Now

Last month we "stuck our neck out" and reaffirmed our bullishness towards risk asset. This month, we have confirmation that the risky bet is paying off. Iran and the US remain materially constrained from total war. The AI capex thesis is holding up and slowly mutating into a price war that will only boost adoption and necessitate more investment. We open a new AI-related trade (long hard disk makers) and go long gold.

Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky 04 Aug 2026

GeoMacro Portfolio

The Benefits Of Geopolitical Promiscuity

We have long argued, on a case-by-case basis, that countries willing to play the superpowers against each other win in a multipolar world. The logic is intuitive, and in this report, we measure it systematically.

Katia Shtrevensky 16 Jun 2026

GeoMacro

Beware The Second Derivative Of AI Capex

Bears will fold like lawn chairs this summer as traffic returns to Hormuz, allowing markets to overcome seasonal malaise. But we are starting to see how the expansion ends. A macro brew of global central bank tightening due to stickier-than-expected inflation, negative second derivative in AI capex, and surging supply of equities due to Monster IPOs. Expect a blow-off rally until midterms, uncertainty after, calamity in 2027.

Marko Papic, Matt Gertken, Katia Shtrevensky 02 Jun 2026

GeoMacro

Australia, Squares Up!

In this month’s Beta Report, we assess what that structural tension means for investors under two distinct scenarios. In our base case – a multipolar world order – Australia's position turns out to be more advantageous than it appears. The great power capital expenditure race generates demand for precisely what Australia produces. In the tail risk – a hard bipolar rupture – the calculus inverts, and the same commodity dependencies that long appeared as structural strengths begin to look like structural liabilities.

Katia Shtrevensky 19 May 2026

GeoMacro

Writing Geopolitical Puts: The Trump Doctrine

As we publish this regularly scheduled GeoMacro Alpha Report, President Trump is warning of civilization-ending strikes against Iran. A bluff? Stage Five on the Seven Steps of Maximum Pressure? A real threat to use weapons of mass destruction? The odds and pattern of Trump's behavior are skewed towards the former, but even small odds of the latter make trading the next 24 hours dangerous.

Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky, Jose Yanes 07 Apr 2026

GeoMacro

Three Myths About The Third Gulf War

The market narrative around the Gulf conflict rests on three flawed myths: the UAE is not “finished,” Iran cannot close Hormuz indefinitely, and the war is not fundamentally about China.

Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky 17 Mar 2026

Iran

CoreMacro

Brazil: Opportunity Meets Reality

Brazil’s bleak macro outlook persists – rising debt, weak productivity, and political inertia. With 2026 elections looming, genuine reform seems unlikely, though Argentina’s bold turnaround could pressure Brasília to rethink its cycle of governability over growth.

Katia Shtrevensky, Max Malakhveitchouk, Juan Egana 04 Nov 2025

GeoMacro

The Garrison State: An Investment Model For The Multipolar World

In our Beta report, we introduce a new framework for thinking about long-term investing in a multipolar world: The Garrison State. Investors need to shed their outdated view that geopolitical risks are... a risk. History teaches us that pressure makes diamonds. And geopolitical pressure makes Garrison States, which tend to outperform precisely because by definition, the bevy of risks that surrounds them is existential.

Katia Shtrevensky, Marko Papic 05 Aug 2025

GeoMacro

How To Attract FDI: The Case of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s middling position in our FDI Attractiveness Index reflects closed trade channels and patchy infrastructure that weigh on an otherwise promising investment story. Addressing those gaps could significantly bolster the Kingdom’s appeal as an FDI host.

Katia Shtrevensky, Marko Papic 10 Jul 2025

GeoMacro

How To Become The Land Of Milk And Honey: Geopolitics And FDI

In our Beta report, we do something different. We focus on what factors create a macro context that is conducive to FDI inflows. Market size, trade openness, and infrastructure quality drive appeal, but secondary factors like governance and overall business climate play a meaningful role as well. As FDI reshuffles around geopolitics and new supply chains, competition will heat up among both destinations and investors.

Katia Shtrevensky, Marko Papic 06 May 2025