Beware The Second Derivative Of AI Capex

Bears will fold like lawn chairs this summer as traffic returns to Hormuz, allowing markets to overcome seasonal malaise. But we are starting to see how the expansion ends. A macro brew of global central bank tightening due to stickier-than-expected inflation, negative second derivative in AI capex, and surging supply of equities due to Monster IPOs. Expect a blow-off rally until midterms, uncertainty after, calamity in 2027.