CoreMacro
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As a short-term (0-3 months) trade, go long an equal-weighted basket of Chinese Investable and A-shares / short the KOSPI. This is a bet on mean reversion. We do not recommend that medium- and long-term investors implement this strategy.
We wish all our French clients Bonne FĂȘte Nationale! The rest of the world knows the holiday by its other name, Bastille Day. It is fitting, therefore, that we publish today GeoMacro Beta report on the coming political earthquake in France.
We continue to overweight Mexican stocks, local bonds, sovereign credit, and currency within their respective EM portfolios. Also, stay long Mexican equities / short the S&P500.
The rebound in China's producer prices and profits this year owes more to external demand than to meaningful progress under Beijing's anti-involution campaign.
The UK economy is becoming increasingly fragile, but the investment outlook is improving. Slower growth and a more dovish BoE will support gilts, while UK equities will likely benefit from a favorable sector mix and a weaker pound.
We are increasingly being asked if higher for longer interest rates could help spur consumption by boosting interest income. This report examines household income and balance sheet data to see if they might.