Our FX strategists expect the US dollar to remain the backbone of the global financial system, even as its reserve-currency premium gradually erodes. The dollar’s entrenched role in global markets argues against abrupt regime breaks. However, the decline in demand for USD reserve assets is expected ...
Japanese yields are heading higher as Japan exits its deflationary regime. Japan is exiting decades of deflation and ultra-accommodative policy, and markets are trying to find their footing. While attention has been focused on policy at the front end of the JGB curve, long-end volatility has increas...
The conventional wisdom attributes the fall in the yen and the rise in long-term JGB yields to growing fiscal concerns. This narrative, however, fails to explain why the Japanese stock market has risen by 29% in dollar terms since the start of 2025, outperforming the All Country World Index by 6%....
The dollar’s grip on global finance remains formidable, but the foundations are slowly shifting. Our new Dollar Dominance Indicator cuts through the noise, showing why USD usage stays sticky even as reserve demand erodes, and what this long transition means for FX and alternative reserve assets....
Recent economic data have been reasonably firm. We will cut our 12-month US recession probability to 40% from 50% if the Supreme Court strikes down President Trump’s tariffs. This would take our scenario-weighted year-end 2026 price target for the S&P 500 to 6375 from 6200....
Private Credit’s role in financing AI is growing, but remains small and concentrated. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Brian Payne, Chief Strategist for our Private Markets & Alternatives (PMA) service. Both private and public market investors are asking how much AI exposure is embedded in ...
Favor curve steepeners and gold as recent price action highlights rising term premia and diversification away from US assets. With markets closed on Monday for the MLK holiday, Tuesday’s session saw price action reminiscent of last year’s “Sell America” trade amid escalating tensions between the US ...
US Treasury yields require a higher premium for both geopolitical risk and inflation risk, but higher bond yields are not necessarily bad for stocks....
Our top five "Black Swan" risks this year are familiar but all too realistic in the current climate. Investors should stay overweight US equities and EM-ex-China until some hurdles are cleared....
The 10-year Treasury term premium is now competitive with Baa- and Ba-rated credit spreads. Even without term premium compression, duration carry trades could outperform credit carry trades in a low rate vol environment....
