This report analyzes the structural and cyclical factors driving service spending in Chinese households and highlights sectors with promising investment opportunities for the next 6 to 12 months....
Our clients know that we have been very generous when it comes to analyzing President Trump’s policy choices and negotiating style. In our view, ascribing preferences to the man is a poor analytical framework. President Trump goes into every situation trying to maximize his gains, only adjusting his...
Europe is in a geopolitical sweet spot. Exaggerated fears of Russian military aggression and abandonment by the United States, as well as increased competition from China, create a geopolitical imperative to stimulate, reflate, and reform. Taken together with fading cyclical headwinds, it suggests t...
The precious metal bonanza has not resolved the South African economy’s plight. Nor did it improve its public debt sustainability issues. Investors should brace for a reversal in South African stocks, bonds, and the currency....
After silver's parabolic surge, we assess the rally's vulnerability by examining its weakest links. We conclude that silver is ripe for a pullback. ...
In our 2026 inflation outlook, we explain why 2026 will bring more disinflation, upside risks remain contained, and how to position in ILBs across major markets....
With the Fed looming larger on investors’ radar screens, we revisit our fed funds rate cycle analysis. We expect that the current easing-while-already-easy phase will be less rewarding than normal for the S&P 500 because multiples have already expanded to very elevated levels....
On Monday – January 19 – BCA Research will hold its View Meeting (open to all clients to view online or as a recording!). This is the gathering of all Chief Strategists to talk about the economy, views, and markets. A veritable Macro Entmoot! Every weekend before a View Meeting, I try to step back a...
