Peter Berezin’s Thought of the Day: Cutting Our US Recession Probability Following the Supreme Court’s Ruling

Fourth quarter US GDP growth clocked in at 1.4%, well below consensus expectations of 2.8%. We are not too troubled by the miss. The government shutdown weighed on the economy, with government spending subtracting 0.9 percentage points from growth. Real private final domestic demand – a clean measure of GDP growth that excludes government expenditure, net exports, and inventories – rose by a respectable 2.4%.