FICC

Renewables’ role in power-hungry data centers is overstated. Natural gas will fill clean electricity’s data center supply shortfall, particularly in the US and Europe.

Special Report

Monetary policy surprises shape curve trade returns. We show where steepeners and flatteners offer the best risk-reward in today’s market.

EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads are set to widen. Within a global credit portfolio, maintain a neutral allocation to EM credit markets versus US corporate credit. Favor EM local currency bonds over EM USD bonds.

The Norges Bank will cut rates only once until year-end as the NOK weakens and inflation hovers around 3%. Expect aggressive easing next year as the economic recovery is delayed by weakness in the energy sector and the labor market deteriorates.

The Indian rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation amid slowing growth, tight domestic policy, and fragile capital flows. Trade risks and a weakening external balance will likely keep INR underperforming EM Asia peers.

The cost of tariffs is falling on the US consumer, not foreign exporters or US firms.

Special Report

The fact that the yellow metal’s rally has defied headwinds from key cyclical drivers suggests that the bull market is structural, not cyclical. Buy gold and gold mining stocks in absolute and relative terms.

In a widely anticipated move, the RBA resumed cutting rates. However, with housing, consumption, and PMIs improving, we see little scope for the RBA to ease beyond market expectations.

This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.

Despite widespread investor optimism Brazil’s currency outlook is challenged by a toxic mix of poor external, fiscal, and macro fundamentals. Expect BRL to underperform most EM peers.