FICC
One macro framework for rates, FX, credit, and commodities, helping investors connect cross-market signals and position with clarity and conviction.
The BoE is easing, but risks falling behind. Labor and growth cracks are starting to emerge, and the Bank may soon be forced to move more decisively. This report outlines why gilts remain a buy and sterling’s path is diverging vs. USD and EUR.
Copper’s unwind – triggered by the refined metal’s US tariff exemption – isn’t over yet. We remain short the red metal on an absolute basis and relative to gold.
Economic activity and hiring cooled significantly in the first half of the year. The most important question for investors is whether this signals an imminent increase in labor market slack.
The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.
The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand.
The Bank of Canada continues to hold its policy rate amid trade uncertainty and shows little concern about the potential economic damage from tariffs. We judge the risks differently and view a bet on more rate cuts this year as attractive.
We apply a systematic approach to investing based on economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises to the foreign exchange market. The signals from this framework are broadly consistent with the tactical views of our FX strategists, which anticipate a pause in the USD’s decline and a partial reversal of the recent euro strength.
