Norway

The Nordic central banks are now aligned in pause mode, but their economies are diverging. With Swedish prospects improving and Norwegian headwinds mounting, we are turning overweight on Swedish equities and shorting NOK/SEK.

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies. 

The Norges Bank will cut rates only once until year-end as the NOK weakens and inflation hovers around 3%. Expect aggressive easing next year as the economic recovery is delayed by weakness in the energy sector and the labor market deteriorates.

In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.