Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Insights

Access expert research, timely insights, and exclusive webcasts to help you make confident, data-driven decisions.

Matt_Jesse_Yushu.png
Upcoming Webcast

Please join Head of GeoMacro, Matt Gertken along with GeoMacro Strategists Jesse Kuri and Yushu Ma for a Webcast, Midterm Election: The BCA Forecast.

Wednesday, October 14
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Topics to be discussed:

  • Will Democrats win the Senate or not? Yes. What happens if they fall short? Nothing!
  • How will markets react to different midterm scenarios? A Democratic victory raises odds of a Blue sweep in 2028, and tax hikes in 2029!
  • Will the US escalate the war with Iran after the midterm? Yes, but only marginally. Constraints still apply.
  • Will President Trump "go abroad" after Congress gets divided? Yes, but mostly to negotiate CEASEFIRES.
  • Will Trump slap tariffs on the world in 2027? Yes, though he cannot jeopardize the business cycle. So ... beware retaliation!
  • What are the midterm implications for the 2028 election and US policy going forward? How will global policies and markets respond?
bca.ficc_str_2026_10_09_cx.png
Report
We review our Model Bond Portfolio performance for Q3 and look ahead as energy prices continue to drive fixed income markets. Balanced labor markets point to a mild tightening cycle, creating opportunities in government bonds and credit, while inflation-linked bonds continue offering protection agai...
bca.geom_gro_2026_10_09_cover.png
Report
We keep the Global Geopolitical Risk Score at 8 because there are still no ceasefires in Europe or the Middle East. Russia is provoking NATO, which will need to push back. Iran, emboldened by the lack of definitive US success, pushes its luck, which could invite a destructive response from the US. T...
5 hours ago
bca.core_str_2026_10_09_002_email.png
Report
The global bond selloff is not over, but opportunities are emerging. US Treasuries and French OATs remain vulnerable to further selling, while other European government bonds look increasingly attractive. Investors should favor German Bunds and peripheral bonds, particularly on a currency-hedged bas...
6 hours ago
bca.geom_si_2026_10_07_cover.png
Report
The Irkutsk plague scare is not yet a crisis, but if it becomes one, Russia is a bad place for it to happen....
bca.ficc_pas_2026_10_07_cms.png
Report
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2026....
07 Oct 2026
bca.ficc_str_2026_10_07_cms.png
Report
Our G10 FX cyclical scorecard still favors high-carry currencies over low yielders, suggesting patience should continue to pay. We break down the factors driving each currency and highlight the most appealing relative-value opportunities....
bca.geom_ar_2026_10_06_cma.png
Report
Long-dated bond yields rose another 48 bps since our last missive, quite a move in just a month. And yet, equities have remained resilient. This suggests that the move in bond yields is due to sanguine economic forces, not fiscal profligacy or inflation fears. In addition, the war in Iran is subsidi...
bca.core_cid_2026_10_06_cw.png
Report
The most bullish development for Brazil from the weekend’s elections was not the higher odds of a right-wing presidency, but the likely president’s (Flávio Bolsonaro) stronghold in Congress. Upgrade Brazilian fixed-income markets to overweight and equities to neutral within their respective EM portf...
06 Oct 2026
bca.ets_mp_2026_10_05_cms.png
Report
A narrow, tech-led rally left USHQ trailing its benchmark despite positive returns to the BCA Score. USHQ SMID lagged more modestly, with lower risk....
05 Oct 2026