Macro Investment Insights & Market Commentary

MacroQuant Model Update: Beware Of The Oil Shock’s Second-Round Effects

MacroQuant recommends a strong underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, has become neutral-to-slightly positive on the US dollar, has downgraded gold to neutral and copper to a strong underweight, and is bullish on oil....

BCA Indicators/Model Financial Markets

31 Mar 2026

Report

Sector Viewfinder Baskets: Technology, Industrials, And Materials

This screener report builds on the US Equity Strategy team's sector view published on 30 March 2026, where the team overweights Information Technology, Industrials, and Materials on a 3- to 12-month horizon. Here we utilize our screening tools to layer bottom-up stock selection onto their top-d...

Sectors Equities

31 Mar 2026

Webcast Replay

Noah Holds Barred: Investing Amidst the Slowdown

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 1

Noah and Jason discussed:

The foundations of our constructive outlook and 7700 year-end S&P 500 target
The capex outlook and its implications
Do valuations represent a meaningful constraint?
Tensions and opportunities between market pricing and the state of the cycle
What a US recession could mean for equities
Middle East tensions: potential paths to resolution and market implications
Sector positioning for 2026

Watch Now

Report

Quarterly Investment Outlook: The R Word Being Whispered

We are pleased to introduce our new Quarterly Investment Outlook, a joint publication bringing together the European Investment Strategy (EIS), Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS), and Foreign Exchange Strategy teams. The main takeaway of the current edition is that investors should not add ris...

Iran Inflation

31 Mar 2026

Report

All Eyes On Hormuz

Over the past month, oil market participants have scrambled to fill the gap in global oil supply caused by the Strait of Hormuz’s closure. While these efforts have been impressive, the scale of the disruption means they are ultimately insufficient. Upside pressures will continue to dominate energy p...

Iran Oil

31 Mar 2026

Report

Brazil: Overhyped

Overstretched foreign inflows into Brazilian markets will reverse, while soaring oil prices will not benefit Brazil in the near term. Avoid the country’s risk assets and the BRL, and stay underweight Brazilian equities and fixed income relative to EM. We also recommend paying 10-year Brazilian swap ...

Latin America Brazil

30 Mar 2026

Report

Sector Viewfinder: Growth, Breadth, And Balance

We continue to expect the S&P 500 to gain ground in 2026, driven by revenue growth, with limited scope for margin or multiple expansion.  With cyclical upside tilted toward the investment side of the economy, we favor sectors with high-quality, revenue-driven earnings growth, leverage capex...

Sectors Equities

30 Mar 2026

Report

Iran, One Month On

One month into the Iranian conflict, we take stock of how markets have moved so far and how some of the big open questions might influence them going forward. A long opportunity may be developing at the long end of the Treasury curve....

Iran Oil

30 Mar 2026

Report

Second Quarter 2026 Strategy Outlook: Unhappy In Its Own Way

The current macro environment is a toxic brew of many of the same vulnerabilities that haunted the global economy in the lead-up to past recessions: Rising oil prices, an unsustainable tech capex boom, elevated equity valuations, excessively high homes prices, and brewing stresses in private credit ...

Economy Financial Markets

27 Mar 2026

Report

Indonesia: On Its Way To Overheating

Indonesian rupiah will continue to plunge, and its local-currency bond yields will rise materially. Investors should short domestic bonds, currency unhedged....

Indonesia Emerging Markets

27 Mar 2026