Economy
This morning’s jobs report serves to underscore that the labor market is not a source of inflationary pressure and therefore of second-order importance when it comes to the Fed’s near-term decision making.
Core US inflation is still running above target. But this morning’s data revisions reveal that the gap is not nearly as large as it appeared yesterday.
US corporate balance sheet health looks strong overall, and credit metrics aren’t showing any significant negative impact from the AI issuance boom.
The Fed is unanimous in expecting a mild tightening cycle of no more than 75 bps, but that outcome is contingent on a rapid drop in core inflation in 2027.
Concerns by the major AI companies that they are locked into a financially unsustainable arms race for AI dominance are likely playing as much a role in their newfound “go slow” approach as concerns over AI doom.
Next week’s CPI and PPI reports will be much more important determinants of the near-term Fed policy path than this morning’s employment report. However, if the trend of labor market tightening continues through year-end, it could lead to a re-acceleration of wage growth in 2027.
