Macro Investment Insights & Market Commentary

Upcoming Webcast

Please join Head of GeoMacro, Matt Gertken along with GeoMacro Strategists Jesse Kuri and Yushu Ma for a Webcast, Midterm Election: The BCA Forecast.

Wednesday, October 14
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Topics to be discussed:

Will Democrats win the Senate or not? Yes. What happens if they fall short? Nothing!
How will markets react to different midterm scenarios? A Democratic victory raises odds of a Blue sweep in 2028, and tax hikes in 2029!
Will the US escalate the war with Iran after the midterm? Yes, but only marginally. Constraints still apply.
Will President Trump "go abroad" after Congress gets divided? Yes, but mostly to negotiate CEASEFIRES.
Will Trump slap tariffs on the world in 2027? Yes, though he cannot jeopardize the business cycle. So ... beware retaliation!
What are the midterm implications for the 2028 election and US policy going forward? How will global policies and markets respond?

Register

Upcoming Webcast

Macro Intelligence for AI Workflows

Join us for a Webcast introducing BCA Intelligence, our new platform for bringing BCA’s current insight and historical investment thinking into the AI assistants, analytics platforms, and internal systems your team uses.

We’ll discuss:

What BCA Intelligence is, and how it works
Why searchable, citation-backed macro insight matters
How it can support existing research and investment workflows
Practical use cases that show BCA Intelligence in action

Wednesday, September 30
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Speakers:

Kurt Viehl
Chief Revenue Officer

Shannon Lal
Chief Technology Officer

Mathieu Savary
Head of Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies

Katia Shtrevensky
Strategist, Geopolitics

We hope you can join us.

P.S. Can’t join us live? Register to receive the recording

Register

Report

US Diesel Export Ban: A Short-Term Fix With Global Fallout

Record diesel prices and mounting political pressure make some form of US export restriction likely. But it wouldn't be a clean solution. We reveal why relief would be fleeting, who would pay the price, and how to trade it....

Report

The Hawks Are Circling

Policy rates are poised to rise across the developed world as central banks are no longer willing to wait out the Iran-US standoff before taking action to combat the inflationary effects of higher oil prices. Outside of Japan, however, we do not think central banks will hike as much as markets expec...

Report

China’s Investment Downshift: What's Next?

China’s investment has hit cyclical and structural limits. Mounting economic pressures will likely push Beijing toward a more aggressive, consumer-focused reflationary stance over the next one to two years. ...

Report

The Fed-Hiking Trail Map: The Path Higher For Equities

The Fed’s first hike is unlikely to be an equity-market cliff. Recent multiple compression has absorbed some of the rate shock, while bond risk premia, rate volatility, and inflation expectations remain contained. Stocks have typically climbed through hiking cycles, but we favor moving up in quality...

Report

Central Bank Monitor Update: The Limits Of The New Tightening Cycle

Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricing is justified and identify tactical opportunities across global bond and currency markets....

Report

The AI Issuance Boom Hasn’t Eroded US Corporate Balance Sheets

US corporate balance sheet health looks strong overall, and credit metrics aren’t showing any significant negative impact from the AI issuance boom....

Report

Putting Inflation Fears In Their Place

The Fed hiked rates last week, but Fed officials expect this tightening cycle will involve no more than three 25-basis point hikes, contingent on inflation coming down quickly in 2027. We’re inclined to agree....

Report

The US Immigration Crackdown: Another Inflation Shock In The Making?

Labor supply is not meaningfully boosting inflation today, but the net exit of unauthorized immigrants has lowered the bar for stronger labor demand to turn inflationary. Hawkish monetary policy surprises over the coming year are possible....